\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 288 Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 25.004 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.71%, and an attributable net profit of 6.671 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.18%; Among them, 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 7.010 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.85%, and an attributable net profit of 1.963 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.19%.
Key investment points
The price increase effect of 21q4 appears, and the demand is expected to gradually recover in 22 years. The revenue of 2021a / Q4 company was RMB 25.04/7.010 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.71% / + 22.85%. 1) By category, soy sauce / sauce / oyster sauce / other condiments were + 8.8% / + 5.6% / + 10.2% / + 13.4% year on year in 21 years, and 21q4 was + 20.8% / + 13.6% / + 21.3% / + 23.1% year on year. Under the background of product price increase in October, all categories of 21q4 recovered high growth. At the same time, the company also makes every effort to promote the development of other categories, among which vinegar, cooking wine and other products have begun to take shape. 2) In terms of subregions, the revenue of the Eastern / Southern / central / northern / western regions in 21 years was + 7.5% / + 8.4% / + 14.0% / + 6.7% / + 9.3% year on year respectively, and that of 21q4 was + 20.3% / + 21.0% / + 30.5% / + 12.1% / 19.8% year on year respectively. In 2021, the number of dealers reached 7430, with a net increase of 379 in the whole year. The number of dealers in the Eastern / Southern / central / northern / western regions was + 96 / + 84 / + 88 / + 26 / + 85 respectively. The number of 21q4 dealers increased by 27 compared with the third quarter, reversing the downward trend of 21q3. With the recovery of catering in the southern region, the growth rate has gradually recovered, and the high growth in the central and western regions is mainly due to the remarkable effect of intensive cultivation of channels in 21 years. According to the channel feedback, from the perspective of the 22 year Spring Festival mobile sales, the mobile sales have improved compared with last year, and the impact of retail community group purchase has also slowed compared with last year. Affected by the epidemic disturbance in March, the inventory has increased, but the increase is limited (the current inventory has been nearly three months). It is expected that in the next 22 years, with the gradual stabilization and precise prevention and control of the national point epidemic, we expect the continuous marginal improvement of demand. In the early stage, the company actively expanded emerging channels and achieved initial results, and the business situation will gradually improve.
Against the background of rising costs, the gross profit margin in 21 years is under pressure. The gross profit margin of the company in 21 years was 38.66%, with a year-on-year rate of -3.51 PTCs, the sales expense rate / management expense rate / financial expense rate of 5.43% / 1.58% / – 2.34%, with a year-on-year rate of -0.56 / – 0.01 / – 0.62 PTCs, and the net profit margin of the company in 21 years was 26.68%, with a year-on-year rate of -1.41 PTCs; The gross profit margin of 21q4 company was 38.13%, with a year-on-year ratio of -3.73 PTCs and a month on month ratio of + 0.22 PTCs. The sales expense rate / management expense rate / financial expense rate were 4.30% / 1.57% / – 2.50%, year-on-year + 4.93 / – 0.55 / – 0.76ptcs, and the net interest rate of 21q4 company was 28.01%, year-on-year -4.09ptcs and month on month + 4.08ptcs. In terms of gross profit margin in 21 years, due to the rising cost of raw materials, it is under pressure. 21q4 in the context of price increase, the pressure on gross profit margin has eased and improved month on month. In October last year, the company announced to raise the price of some products. At present, the channel feedback has basically completed the price discount, the price of catering and retail terminals has been implemented, and the pressure on the profit side has been relieved. However, due to the impact of the external environment, all costs are still high. It is recommended to actively track the subsequent cost changes and the performance elasticity after the inflection point appears. In terms of cost input, the company has full confidence in the improvement of cost control ability and operation efficiency, which has also been reflected in the whole year of 21 years. It is expected that the company will also hedge the upward cost and peer competitive pressure through internal potential tapping and new product expansion, so as to help its profitability remain stable.
Investment suggestion: looking forward to 2022, we look forward to the opportunities brought by the improvement of catering after the accurate prevention and control of the epidemic. At the same time, with the superposition of the previous price increase contribution, the company is expected to gradually improve month on month in the quarter. The company proposes to achieve the goal of 12% increase in revenue and net profit in the whole year. In the long run, the company has strong competitiveness and a stable leading position. Under the pressure of the external environment, the company uses its channel and brand advantages to achieve steady growth. Based on the pressure of rising costs, we slightly adjusted the company’s profit forecast: from 2022 to 2024, the operating revenue was 280.94/324.05/371.81 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 12.4% / 15.3% / 14.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.498/89.43/10.596 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.4% / 19.3% / 18.5%. The corresponding EPS is 1.78/2.12/2.52 yuan respectively, maintaining the company’s “buy-b” investment rating.
Risk warning: repeated outbreaks in some areas; Industry competition intensifies; The promotion of new products is less than expected; The cost of raw materials is rising rapidly; Food safety issues.
