\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 713 Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) )
In 2021, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company reached a new high. The annual revenue of the company was 8.645 billion yuan (+ 152.3%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 432 million yuan (+ 49.7%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 411 million yuan (+ 50.6%). The company previously predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 increased by 44-51%, and the actual data of the annual report fell on the top edge of the notice. In the fourth quarter, the single quarter revenue was 2.695 billion yuan (+ 158.9%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 130 million yuan (+ 68.9%). The growth rate of Q1-Q4 revenue of the company in 21 years was 127%, 138%, 176% and 159% respectively, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 46%, 21%, 67% and 69% respectively, which was lower in the front and higher in the rear. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.9 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
The trend of logistics business was better in the second half of the year. The company's logistics revenue caliber is slightly adjusted. After restoration:
1) MGF global freight forwarding business + MTT global shipping and tank business: in 2021, the company's global freight forwarding and shipping tank revenue reached 3.114 billion / 334 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 185% / 35%; 2) MRW regional warehousing and distribution integration business: the annual warehousing and distribution integration revenue increased by 8.7% to 549 million year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the warehousing business was affected by the inventory of the chemical industry, and the capacity utilization rate decreased. In the second half of 2021, the company expected the warehousing business to improve significantly on the revenue side by flexibly adjusting the structure of its leased assets; 3) MRT intra regional trade delivery: the company's transportation business revenue increased with the demand for contract logistics. The annual revenue was 1.258 billion, the revenue increased by 42.0%, and the gross profit margin was 9.1%; 4) MPC global engineering logistics and dry bulk cargo: this revenue project is a new project in 2021, with an annual revenue of 235 million yuan. It is expected that engineering logistics will become an important incremental source of the company's revenue and profit in 2022; 5) MCD Chemical Trading: the company's distribution business in 2021 was brilliant, with an annual revenue of 3.126 billion. According to the data in the appendix of the semi annual report, we estimate that the chemical trading business is expected to be 1.147 billion in the first half of the year and 1.979 billion in the second half of the year, with significant month on month growth. The company's distribution business maintained a relatively stable profit margin at the time of rapid expansion, and the annual gross profit margin reached 5.4%.
2022: logistics speed up, transaction and logistics improve in coordination. We expect that the logistics projects incubated by the company in the past are expected to be put into operation gradually in 22 years, so as to continue to drive the growth of contract logistics. In terms of trading, the company has crossed the sales revenue mark of 3 billion in 21 years and is expected to maintain high growth in 22 years. The larger scale is conducive to synergy with logistics business development.
Risk warning: the industry demand is lower than expected; The expansion of the company is lower than expected; The impact of the epidemic has increased.
Investment advice: maintain the "buy" rating. We believe that the business boundary expansion of the company is taking shape, from chemical logistics to a delivery company integrating logistics and transaction. The company has strong action force and landing ability in expansion. We kept the company's profit forecast of 640 million and 990 million from 2022 to 2023 unchanged, and the new company's profit forecast of 1.35 billion in 2024. The current market value of the company corresponds to the performance forecast of 2022, which is 31x, maintaining the buy rating.
