\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 898 China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) )
Event: on March 24, 2022, the company disclosed the annual report of 2021, and the company realized an operating revenue of 231127 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 13.282 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124.8%.
21q4 performance fell sharply. According to the calculation of the announcement, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company in the fourth quarter of 2021 was RMB 1.426 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.64% and a month on month decrease of 66.6%, mainly due to the provision of asset impairment loss of RMB 3.169 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021, which affected the release of the company’s performance.
In 2021, the sales of self-produced coal will be stable, and the sales of trade coal will increase greatly. In 2021, the company produced 112.74 million tons of commercial coal, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, sold 29.117 million tons of commercial coal, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, including 110.73 million tons of self-produced commercial coal, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, 169.27 million tons of buyout trade coal, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, and 11.17 million tons of agent sales in China, a year-on-year increase of 40.5%.
Coal prices have risen sharply and gross profit has thickened significantly. In terms of price, in 2021, the comprehensive selling price of the company’s self-produced coal was 645 yuan / ton, an increase of 202 yuan / ton or 45.6%, and the selling price of buyout trade coal was 769 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 331 yuan / ton or 75.6%. In terms of cost, the unit sales cost of the company’s self-produced commercial coal in 2021 was 325.19 yuan / ton, an increase of 45.95 yuan / ton or 16.5% over 2020, and the unit sales cost of buying out trade coal was 753 yuan / ton, an increase of 135 yuan / ton or 21.9% over 2020. In 2021, the company’s coal business realized a gross profit of 36.259 billion yuan, an increase of 17.51 billion yuan or 93.4% over 2020; The gross profit margin was 17.9%, 1.4 percentage points higher than the 16.5% in 2020. Among them, the gross profit of self-produced commercial coal increased by 17.162 billion yuan and 12.5 percentage points year-on-year. In a single quarter, the output of commercial coal reached 29.76 million tons in the fourth quarter of 2021, with a month on month increase of 12.3% and a year-on-year increase of 8.9%.
The price of chemical products rose comprehensively: according to the announcement, in 2021, the output of main coal chemical products was 4.772 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, and the sales volume of main coal chemical products was 4.921 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%; Among them, the sales volume of polyolefin was 1.462 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, the sales volume of urea was 2.213 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, and the sales volume of methanol was 1.246 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 81.1%. In terms of price, the price of polyolefin increased by 17.8% year-on-year to 7521 yuan / ton, the price of urea increased by 37.1% year-on-year to 2228 yuan / ton, and the price of methanol increased by 40.4% to 1870 yuan / ton. Due to the sharp rise in the purchase price of raw coal and fuel coal, the gross profit of the company’s coal chemical business was 2.649 billion yuan, a decrease of 28 million yuan or 1.0% from 2.677 billion yuan in 2020; The gross profit margin was 12.2%, down 3.5 percentage points from 15.7% in 2020.
The company has entered the production growth period, and the simultaneous rise of volume and price is expected to drive the release of performance: the company is a company with growing capacity among coal enterprises. In terms of production capacity, four coal mines have been included in the list of national coal mines to increase production and guarantee supply, increasing the production capacity by 12.1 million tons / year, of which the east open pit coal mine and Wangjialing coal mine have increased the production capacity by 6.5 million tons / year, which has been approved. In terms of capacity under construction, the first mining face of dahaize coal mine with an annual output of 15 million tons of high-quality power coal has been put into trial operation. In addition to dahaize, the company still has three pairs of capacity under construction, namely Libi coal mine (4 million tons / year), Yilan No. 3 coal mine (2.4 million tons / year) and Weizigou coal mine (2.4 million tons / year). The company has strong growth. In terms of price, the company’s coal sales are dominated by the long-term association. In 2022, the benchmark price of the long-term association was increased from 535 yuan / ton to 675 yuan / ton, an increase of 26%. The improvement of the long-term association center will help the company raise its comprehensive selling price and further improve its profitability.
The proposed cash dividend is 3.985 billion yuan, with a dividend rate of 3.9%. According to the announcement, the company plans to pay a cash dividend of 3.985 billion yuan, accounting for 30% of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, corresponding to a dividend of 0.301 yuan per share (including tax). Based on the stock price on March 24, 2022, the dividend rate is 3.9%.
Investment suggestion: under the background of the benchmark increase of the long-term association, the company’s comprehensive price center moves upward with strong certainty. At the same time, the production capacity under construction is continuously put into operation, the self-produced coal output is expected to continue to grow, and the company is expected to increase both volume and price in the future, with broad development prospects. According to the latest performance report of the company and the current coal price, we raised the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 18.994/21.59/23.955 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 1.43/1.59/1.81 respectively, and the corresponding PE on March 24, 2022 will be 5 times, 5 times and 4 times respectively. Maintain a “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: coal prices have fallen sharply; The price of coal chemical products fell sharply; The capacity under construction is less than expected; Withdrawing large amount impairment; Costs rose more than expected.
