\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 166 Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) )
The performance express of 2021 has been disclosed in the early stage. The net profit in 2021 increased by 24.1%, mainly due to the improvement of asset quality and the reduction of the pressure of provision. In 2021, the annual revenue was 221.2 billion yuan (+ 8.9%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 82.7 billion yuan (+ 24.1%). In the fourth quarter, the single quarter revenue was 57.2 billion yuan (+ 11.4%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 18.6 billion yuan (+ 26.6%). The high increase of the company’s net profit was mainly due to the improvement of asset quality, reducing the pressure of provision provision, and the loss of asset impairment decreased by 11.2% year-on-year. However, benefiting from the improvement of asset quality, the provision coverage rate at the end of the period was 268.7%, an increase of 5.7 percentage points compared with the end of September and 49.9 percentage points compared with the beginning of the year, and the absolute level is at the high level since 2015.
The narrowing of net interest margin dragged down the growth of net interest income and the high growth of non interest income. Net interest income increased by only 1.51% in 2021, mainly due to the narrowing of net interest margin. The annual net interest margin was 2.29%, which narrowed by 7bps year-on-year and 3bps compared with the first half of the year. In 2021, total assets increased by 9.0%, deposits and loans increased by 6.6% and 11.7% respectively, and the expansion speed of deposits and loans slowed down. In terms of credit structure, corporate loans and personal loans increased by 8.8% and 9.7% respectively, and bill discount increased significantly by 56.2%, accounting for 7.3% of the total loans. In 2021, the company’s non interest income increased by 26.7%, accounting for 34.1% of revenue, an increase of 4.8 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the net income from handling fees and commissions increased by 13.2% year-on-year; Other non interest income increased by 50.0% year-on-year, mainly due to the significant increase in corporate bond investment income.
The non-performing rate has dropped to a low level since 2015, and the asset quality of housing related business is controllable. The non-performing rate at the end of the period was 1.10%, down 2bps from the end of September and 15bps from the beginning of the year. The attention rate at the end of the period was 1.52%, which increased by 5bps compared with the end of September, and the overdue rate was 1.47%, which increased by 4bps compared with the end of June. The overdue rate and attention rate increased slightly, mainly according to the regulatory requirements. The expected recognition time point of the company’s credit card in the fourth quarter was earlier than the original rules. In the real estate field, at the end of the period, the balance of the company’s domestic self operated loans, bonds, non-standard and other businesses invested in the real estate field was 1.65 trillion yuan, of which mortgage loans accounted for 67.8%, and the balance of corporate financing business with high-quality developers and high-quality projects as the main financing objects accounted for 32.2%. Therefore, we believe that the risk of the company’s real estate business is controllable, and the non-performing rate of the company’s real estate business at the end of the period is 1.34%.
Risk tips: 1. The epidemic situation is repeated, and the steady growth policy is less than expected, resulting in lower than expected economic recovery; 2. The risk exposure in the real estate sector exceeded market expectations.
Investment suggestion: maintain the profit forecast and maintain the “overweight” rating.
In 2022, the company successfully issued 50 billion yuan of convertible bonds and 75 billion yuan of secondary capital bonds, further enhancing its capital strength. The company’s performance is in line with expectations, and we maintain our profit forecast unchanged. It is estimated that its net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 93.8 billion yuan / 106.1 billion yuan / 118.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13.4% / 13.1% / 11.7%, corresponding to diluted EPS 4.5% 51 yuan / 5.11 yuan / 5.70 yuan. The dynamic PE corresponding to the current stock price is 4.4x/3.9x/3.5x and Pb is 0.61x/0.55x/0.49x, maintaining the rating of “overweight”.
