\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 197 Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) )
Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) is a leading auto parts company in China. On the premise that TPMS and other traditional business fields have established a firm leading position, it aims at the general trend of electric intelligence industry through endogenous self-research, cooperative mergers and acquisitions, and continues to make new progress in sensors, ADAS, air suspension, lightweight and other fields. It can not only expand capacity, but also win orders, but also stabilize the volume.
In terms of operation: financial stability, balanced business at home and abroad, smooth progress in foreign cooperation and M & A
Adverse factors such as rising prices of raw materials and freight are gradually alleviated and eliminated;
China has fully responded to the epidemic, and its overseas business is basically stable at present;
Cooperative M & a extension capability, and the recent cooperation with chuhang technology and Longgan technology is progressing smoothly.
Intelligence: expand ADAS business based on sensors
TPMS business tends to be stable, with a 5-year CAGR of 10%, and overseas business is not affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine;
Light, rainfall, pressure and other sensors accelerated the expansion, and the pace of capacity expansion was good;
Adas products focus on millimeter wave radar, 360 look around and other fields, and there are fixed-point projects;
The air suspension has a forward-looking layout, and the air spring components have formed a production capacity and have a fixed point for the project of the head vehicle enterprise.
Lightweight: the product matrix is gradually completed
Relying on the accumulation of hydraulic forming technology, gradually expand the pipe fittings of various core structures such as frame and body;
It has formed a supply relationship with foreign chassis suppliers and Chinese independent vehicle enterprises;
General components: scale advantages make Changhong’s performance
The top three in the exhaust pipe fittings industry, the steady growth of valve shipment, the continuous leadership of balance weight business and the existence of scale advantage are still the stable basic sector for the long-term and sustainable development of the company.
Investment suggestions:
We estimate that the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 3.904 billion yuan, 4.686 billion yuan and 5.637 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 255 million yuan, 297 million yuan and 381 million yuan respectively, the earnings per share will be 123 yuan, 143 yuan and 1.84 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 35.21x, 30.25x and 23.58x respectively.
It is normal for auto parts companies to expand their capabilities through cooperative M & A, but few companies can not only expand their capabilities, but also win orders and stabilize the volume. As a potential intelligent and lightweight auto parts company, the company has its scarcity. Combining Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) and other comparable companies, the company is given a valuation of 40 times PE, and the reasonable share price is 57.2 yuan. Covering the company for the first time and giving a “buy” rating.
Risk tips:
The epidemic control is not as expected, the progress of new projects is not as expected, the progress of customer expansion is not as expected, the risk of intensified industry competition, and the landing of high-level automatic driving is not as expected.
