\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 882 Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) )
Event: on March 24, 2022, Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) released the annual report of 2021. During the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.478154 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 57.31% / + 160.60%. If the impact of equity incentive expenses is excluded, the net profit attributable to the parent company of 21 company is 277 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 364.49%. Among them, 21q4 achieved operating revenue / net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 1.334/0.11 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 37.45% / + 72.68%.
Focus on cheese and lead innovation. 1) In terms of products, in 2021, the company’s liquid milk / cheese / trading products achieved revenue of 430 / 33.3 / 700 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.0% / + 60.8% / + 97.0%, of which the revenue of cheese products accounted for 74.6% of the company’s main business revenue, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.7 PCTs. The company continues to carry out product innovation, and took the lead in launching normal temperature cheese stick in September 21; In the 21st year, golden cheese sticks with 51% cheese content and pure milk fortified formula were also launched to meet the differentiated needs of consumers. 2) By region, in 2021, the company’s revenue in North / central / south district changed by + 51.0% / + 60.2% / + 67.2% year-on-year. 3) According to the sales mode, the sales revenue of distribution / direct sales / trade increased by + 54.2% / + 33.2% / + 97.0% respectively, and the three main sales modes of the company achieved rapid growth. In terms of channel construction, by the end of 2021, the company had 5363 dealers, covering Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) retail sales terminals, and the number of dealers doubled compared with the end of 2020.
Steadily improve profitability and continue to strengthen brand building. 1) In 21 years, the gross profit margin of the company’s main business was 38.14%, a year-on-year increase of + 2.21 PCTs. With the substantial growth of the company’s cheese product revenue, the scale effect gradually appeared. Coupled with the iterative upgrading of low-temperature cheese sticks and the launch of normal temperature cheese sticks, the gross profit margin of the cheese sector increased from + 3.14pcts to 48.51% year-on-year. In 21 years, the gross profit of cheese products accounted for 94.93% of the company’s main business gross profit, up from + 2.87pcts year-on-year. 2) In the 21st year, the sales expense ratio increased from + 0.92pcts to 25.87% year-on-year. It is mainly the advance of the Spring Festival in the 22nd year. In order to seize the market in the peak season of the Spring Festival, the company increased advertising efforts in advance by launching head satellite TV and subway advertisements at the end of the 21st year. 3) The management expense ratio in 21 years was 7.67%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.74pcts, mainly due to the increase of amortization expenses of equity incentive. 4) The financial expense rate in 21 years was -0.69%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.71pcts, mainly due to the increase of interest income caused by the arrival of the company’s raised funds. The R & D expense ratio was 0.90%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.47pcts. 5) Overall, the net profit margin of the company’s sales in 2021 / 2021q4 was 4.33% / 2.77% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.73pcts / + 1.19pcts.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering the repeated epidemic and the uncertainty of the recovery of terminal consumption power, the forecast of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-23 years was lowered to 429 / 827 million yuan (12.1% / 7.8% lower than the previous period), and the forecast of 24-year net profit attributable to the parent company was introduced to 1.166 billion yuan, equivalent to 0.83/1.60/2.26 yuan of EPS in 202224 respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE in 202224 was 44x / 23x / 16x respectively. Considering that the leading position of the company’s C-end cheese is still stable and the growth space of the cheese industry is large, we maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the release of production capacity is less than expected; The growth of new products is lower than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; Food Safety.
