\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 286 Baolingbao Biology Co.Ltd(002286) )
Event: the company released the performance express for 2021. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 202 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 304.65%; 21q4 realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 41 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 108789%.
Benefiting from the booming supply and demand of erythritol, the company’s performance has improved significantly in the past 21 years
With the rapid increase of consumers’ demand for sugar substitutes, there will be a large gap between supply and demand of erythritol in 2021, with a large increase compared with the same period of 20 years. As the first industrialized erythritol enterprise in China, the company has rich customer resources and sufficient orders. In addition, the company’s new production capacity is accelerated, and the production capacity of erythritol is expanded to 30000 tons in 2021q3. We expect to release another 30000 tons of new production capacity in mid-2022, providing a strong guarantee for subsequent sales growth.
The layout of alodonose in advance is expected to form a new performance growth point
Alodonose has the advantages of high sweetness, good solubility, low calories and low blood sugar. It has been approved by many countries all over the world and has a large market space. The company is the largest manufacturer of alodonose in China. The technology is relatively mature. The existing capacity is 7000 tons and the planned increase is 30000 tons. We expect that part of the production will be put into operation in 2022, with the advantage of first mover. At present, China has not passed the examination and approval, and all products are exported and sold. With the continuous growth of global demand and the gradual liberalization of Chinese policies, alodonose is expected to become the second growth curve of the company.
As a leading enterprise of functional sugar, the company has obvious core advantages
We believe that the company’s competitive advantage is mainly reflected in three aspects: 1) the advantage of the whole industrial chain: the company is the only manufacturer and service provider of all kinds of functional sugar products in China, which can fully meet the diversified needs of downstream customers; 2) R & D advantages: the company has strong R & D capabilities and continues to create food and drinks in line with health trends; 3) Brand and market advantages: over the years, the company has continuously strengthened the ability of key customer marketing and scheme marketing, customized solutions for customers, and strong customer stickiness.
Equity incentive shows confidence in development, and phase I objectives are successfully achieved
In September 21, the company issued an equity incentive plan to deeply bind core executives and technicians. According to the draft plan, the assessment objective is to achieve an operating revenue of RMB 2.60/37.5/4.5 billion and a CAGR of 31.6% from 2021 to 2023; The net profit was 150 / 260 / 340 million yuan, and the CAGR was 50.6%.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We believe that under the general trend of sugar reduction, the company, as a leading functional sugar enterprise, is expected to pass on its own advantages α Achieve rapid growth in performance. It is estimated that the revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.78/4.68/5.5 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.8/3.6/4.2 billion yuan respectively, the EPS will be 0.8/1.0/1.1 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 15.4x/12.1x/10.4x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies; Demand fluctuation of downstream customers; The sales volume of the company’s products is lower than expected; Risk of approval failure
