Core view
Event: the national development and Reform Commission issued the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035) on March 23. The plan proposes that by 2025, we will basically master the core technology and process of hydrogen energy, have about 50000 fuel cell vehicles, deploy and build a number of hydrogen refueling stations, produce 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 tons of hydrogen from renewable energy, and reduce carbon dioxide by 1-2 million tons / year. By 2030, a relatively complete technological innovation system for hydrogen energy industry and a clean energy hydrogen production and supply system will be formed to effectively support the realization of the carbon peak goal. By 2035, a diversified application ecology of hydrogen energy will be formed, and the proportion of hydrogen production from renewable energy in terminal energy consumption will increase significantly.
Key point 1: accelerate the coordinated development of photovoltaic wind power and energy storage technology. The plan emphasizes that we should give full play to the advantages of long hydrogen energy regulation cycle and large energy storage capacity, promote the consumption of renewable energy such as wind power, photovoltaic and power grid peak shaving, and cultivate the integrated mode of “wind power generation + hydrogen energy storage”. According to the latest data of the national energy administration, the installed capacity of wind power photovoltaic in China was 330 million KW and 320 million KW by the end of February, accounting for 13.81% and 13.39% of the total installed capacity of power generation respectively, and will continue to maintain a high growth rate.
The unstable output of renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaic may significantly affect the stability of power grid and cause the mismatch of power supply and demand. Hydrogen energy, as the choice of energy storage with high energy density, long energy storage time and convenient storage and transportation, is expected to further release the installed space of wind power photovoltaic and ensure the long-term prosperity of wind power photovoltaic.
Key point 2: promote the research and development of hydrogen energy infrastructure and technology, and benefit the industrial chain of hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen transportation and hydrogen energy application. The plan emphasizes the restriction of hydrogen production from fossil energy. In combination with resource endowment and industrial layout, the technical route of hydrogen production shall be selected according to local conditions. In areas where coking, chlor alkali, propane dehydrogenation and other industries are concentrated, priority shall be given to the use of industrial by-product hydrogen, and nearby consumption shall be encouraged to reduce costs. China is now the world’s largest hydrogen producer, with an annual output of more than 25 million tons. However, the proportion of “grey hydrogen” produced from fossil energy still reaches 77.3%, and the subsequent “grey hydrogen” will gradually transition to CCs and industrial by-product “blue hydrogen”. Chlor alkali and coking enterprises that have arranged the hydrogen energy industry chain in advance are expected to receive strong support and develop rapidly in the future.
Recommended target: hydrogen production and storage: Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) ( Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) . SZ); Integration: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ( Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) . SZ); Fuel cell system: Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) ( Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) . SH), electrolytic cell: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ( Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) . SH).
Risk warning: the development of hydrogen energy market is less than the expected risk; The research and development of hydrogen energy technology is less than the expected risk; The installed capacity of wind power PV is less than the expected risk; Industry competition intensifies risks.
