Industry core view:
On March 23, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration jointly issued the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035). From the national level, the plan defines two key positioning of hydrogen energy as an important part of China’s energy system in the future and an important carrier for energy consumption terminals to realize green and low-carbon transformation. As China’s first medium and long-term development plan for hydrogen energy, the introduction of the document has great guiding significance for the high-quality development of hydrogen energy industry.
Key investment points:
The objective and clear stage objectives are conducive to the steady development of the hydrogen energy industry: the plan sets the stage objectives for the development of the hydrogen energy industry. By 2025, we will basically master the core technology and manufacturing process, have about 50000 fuel cell vehicles, deploy and build a number of hydrogen refueling stations, produce 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 tons of hydrogen from renewable energy and reduce carbon dioxide by 1-2 million tons / year. By 2030, a relatively complete technological innovation system for hydrogen energy industry and a clean energy hydrogen production and supply system will be formed to effectively support the realization of the carbon peak goal. By 2035, a diversified application ecology of hydrogen energy will be formed, and the proportion of hydrogen production from renewable energy in terminal energy consumption will increase significantly. Compared with the goals of 100000 vehicles in 25 years and 1 million vehicles in 35 years in the technology roadmap for energy saving and new energy vehicles 2.0, the stage goals set in the medium and long-term plan are more appropriate to the current situation of China’s hydrogen energy development, which is conducive to the coordinated and coordinated development of fuel cell promotion and hydrogen energy infrastructure construction.
The development path of renewable hydrogen production and the promotion of green hydrogen substitution by wind power construction: according to the requirements of the plan, by 2025, China’s renewable energy hydrogen production will reach 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 tons / year and realize carbon dioxide emission reduction of 1-2 million tons / year; By 2030, hydrogen production from renewable energy will be widely used. At present, there are three relatively complete and mature hydrogen production technology routes in China: first, hydrogen production by reforming fossil energy represented by coal and natural gas; Second, hydrogen production from industrial by-product gas represented by coke oven gas, chlor alkali tail gas and propane dehydrogenation; The third is hydrogen production by electrolyzing water. At present, China’s hydrogen source mainly comes from industrial by-product hydrogen, which has significant advantages in terms of technology threshold in the short term. With the gradual development of scenery resources, the cost of kilowatt hour electricity is further reduced. In the long run, green hydrogen will replace gray hydrogen and become the mainstream hydrogen production path. According to sgeri data, the kWh cost of China’s photovoltaic system in 2019 is about 0.29-0.80 yuan / kWh, and the electricity cost will be 0.22-0.462 yuan / kWh by 2025. The power cost per kilowatt hour of onshore wind power is about 0.315-0.565 yuan per kilowatt hour, and there is still some room for decline in the future. It is estimated that the power cost will be 0.241-0.447 yuan per kilowatt hour by 2025. When the electricity price drops to 0.1-0.2 yuan per kilowatt, the cost of hydrogen production from electrolytic water can be reduced by 50%, and there is much room for the industry to reduce the cost.
Establish four basic principles to promote domestic substitution in key areas: the plan puts forward four principles for the development of hydrogen energy industry. First, innovation and self-reliance. Second, safety first, clean and low-carbon. Third, market led and government guided. Fourth, the application of stability and caution, demonstration first. Among them, it is mentioned in self-reliance that we should focus on breaking through the technical bottleneck of hydrogen energy industry and enhancing the stability and competitiveness of industrial chain and supply chain. At present, the investment opportunities of the hydrogen energy industry focus on the localization and substitution of the core field of fuel cells and the hydrogen supply industry chain of four links: production, storage, transportation and addition. In the initial stage, Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) , as the pioneer of domestic replacement of fuel cell power system, and Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , which has a leading position in the field of hydrogen production from coke oven gas, will usher in new opportunities for rapid development. In the long run, other core components such as wind power industry chain and hydrogen storage tank involved in hydrogen production from electrolytic water are expected to achieve performance growth and improvement as the hydrogen energy industry enters the growth period.
Risk factors: 1. The policy promotion is not as strong as expected; 2. The cost reduction rate of fuel cells and parts is lower than expected; 3. The cost of hydrogen production decreased less than expected; 4. The construction of hydrogenation station was not as expected.
