\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 86 Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) )
Core view
The annual performance is in line with expectations, and Q4 single quarter growth is under pressure. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of RMB 21.086 billion. Due to the impact of the merger and acquisition of Suzhou waterproof Research Institute under the same control, the retroactive adjusted year-on-year profit of RMB 3.51 billion, the adjusted year-on-year profit of RMB 3.414 billion, the adjusted year-on-year profit of RMB 3.414 billion and the adjusted year-on-year EPS of RMB 2.08/share are in line with the previous performance forecast, and it plans to pay RMB 6.55 (including tax) for 10 shares; Among them, Q4 achieved an operating revenue of RMB 5.163 billion in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of + 9.25%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 787 million, a year-on-year decrease of - 7.87%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent of RMB 748 million, a year-on-year decrease of - 7.37%.
The volume and price of gypsum board increased simultaneously, driving the growth of performance, and the Q4 profit improved month on month. In terms of products: 1) gypsum board revenue was 13.778 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25.94%, accounting for 65.35%, gypsum board sales volume was 2.378 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of + 18.0%, and the volume and price of gypsum board business increased simultaneously; We calculate that the sales unit price of gypsum board is 5.79 yuan / m2, year-on-year + 6.7%, the unit cost is 3.64 yuan / m2, year-on-year + 4.5%, the unit gross profit is 2.16 yuan / m2, the gross profit margin is 37.26%, year-on-year + 1.36pct; 2) The revenue of light steel keel was 2.756 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 40.32%, accounting for 13.07%, and the gross profit margin was 18.43%, with a year-on-year increase of -6.25 PCT. The business made significant progress, with a total production capacity of 488000 tons, ranking the largest in the world. The decline in gross profit margin was mainly due to the rise in the cost of raw materials such as galvanized sheets; 3) The revenue of waterproof business was 3.871 billion yuan, accounting for 18.36%, including 2.546 billion yuan of waterproof coiled materials, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.02%, accounting for 12.08%, and the gross profit margin was 27.35%, with a year-on-year decrease of -9.33pct. The decline in gross profit margin was mainly due to the sharp rise in asphalt price. In the whole year, the comprehensive gross profit margin was 31.83%, year-on-year -1.85pct, and the gross profit margin in Q4 was 31.91%, year-on-year -2.99pct, month on month + 3.62pct, and the profit was improved month on month.
"One body and two wings" have been steadily promoted and new growth points have been actively cultivated. 1) Waterproof business: in 2021, it acquired the remaining 30% equity of Yuwang and Shuyang, and jointly reorganized Shanghai Taian (70% equity), Tianjin Aotai (70% equity) and Chengdu Saite (70% equity), so as to further expand the layout of waterproof industry. At present, it has realized the layout of 15 waterproof production bases, ranking among the forefront of the industry. At the same time, it established Beixin waterproof as a business platform company to fully complete the first stage of integration of waterproof business; 2) Coating business: establish Beixin coating, integrate the existing business, acquire 49% equity of Tianjin lighthouse coating, accelerate the coating layout, and take the lead in the formation of China coating revival alliance.
Risk warning: the completion of the real estate is not as expected; Raw materials rose more than expected; The expansion of waterproof coating is less than expected.
Investment suggestions: build high-quality development with multiple growth curves, be optimistic about long-term growth, maintain the "buy" company as the leader of gypsum board, adhere to the "commanding height" strategy, continue to consolidate the leading advantage, accelerate the development of "gypsum board +" business such as keel, enhance industrial advantages, and steadily promote the "one body, two wings and global layout", with clear objectives of multiple growth curves and open space for long-term growth. Considering the short-term demand pressure and the impact of raw material costs, the profit forecast is lowered. It is expected that the EPS in 22-24 years will be 2.41/2.77/3.15 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 12.2/10.6/9.3x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
