\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 865 Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) )
Event: on March 22, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021. The company achieved annual revenue of 8.713 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.18%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.120 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.15%; The deducted non net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 2.055 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.92%; The basic earnings per share is 0.99 yuan. Among them, 2021q4 achieved a revenue of 2.375 billion yuan in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 5.89%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 403 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 50.67%, which was mainly due to the imbalance between supply and demand of photovoltaic glass in the fourth quarter of 20 and the high price. In the 21st year, without considering the impact of freight included in the cost item, the year-end photovoltaic installation and production was poor, and the price of soda ash and other raw materials rose, resulting in a significant year-on-year decrease in the price of photovoltaic glass while the cost rose, and the Q4 performance was under.
Significant cost advantage and leading profitability in the industry. In 2021, the company’s revenue of photovoltaic glass reached 7.121 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.28%. As the price of photovoltaic glass continued to decline in the second half of last year, the gross profit margin of various manufacturers decreased. The gross profit margin of photovoltaic glass of the company reached 35.70% in the whole year, still maintaining the leading level in the industry. Throughout the year, the production and sales of photovoltaic glass of the company were 296 / 265 million square meters respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 58.04% / 43.17%, and the single average cost was 17.30 yuan / square meter. Compared with other second tier enterprises, the cost still has great advantages, and the leading position of the industry is prominent.
The price of silicon material is expected to decline, and the photovoltaic industry will maintain a high outlook throughout the year. Considering that the decline in the price of silicon material in the photovoltaic industry throughout the year leads to the decline of the price of the industrial chain, the certainty of demand explosion is high, and the demand for double glass modules and large-size silicon chips stimulate the accelerated improvement of the demand boom of photovoltaic glass products in Dayao Road, the demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to increase year-on-year in 2022. At the same time, with the continuous optimization of the company’s product structure, the proportion of double glass and large size has increased significantly. Under the industry background of high prosperity + double glass trend + increase in the proportion of large size, it is expected that the profitability of the company’s photovoltaic glass is expected to rebound at the bottom compared with 21q4.
Continuous expansion of production capacity, upward integration and consolidation of leading position. At present, the photovoltaic industry is highly prosperous and the demand for photovoltaic glass continues to increase. In order to meet the customers’ differentiated requirements for large-size and thin glass, the company continues to expand production. At present, the company’s phase III and IV projects of Anhui base are under construction. At the same time, it plans to build four photovoltaic glass kilns with a daily melting capacity of 1200 tons in Nantong. It is expected that the company will release seven new production capacity of 1200 tons / D in 2022, totaling 8400 tons, In addition, the company plans to put four 1200 T / D kilns in Fengyang and Nantong into operation in 23 years, and the nominal capacity is expected to reach 20600 / 30200 T / D in 2022 / 2023. As the company’s demand for quartz and the supply rate of raw materials in the upstream sector are gradually increased through the acquisition of 100% equity of the mining industry, and the company’s self-sufficiency rate of quartz raw materials can be significantly increased through the expansion of mining industry and the payment of raw materials in the upstream sector.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to achieve revenue of 14.1/20.8/26.8 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 2.8/42/5.8 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE multiple of 37x / 24x / 18x. As a leading enterprise of photovoltaic glass, the company has consolidated its leading position with production expansion + upward integration. It is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of photovoltaic industry and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the demand for photovoltaic installation is less than expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates, the price of photovoltaic adhesive film drops, etc.
