\u3000\u30003 Montnets Cloud Technology Group Co.Ltd(002123) 00212)
Key investment points
Under the influence of lower than expected refinancing and accounting treatment adjustment, the income and profit of 21 years fluctuated in the short term.
In 2021, the company's revenue was 2.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was -174 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 132%, which was mainly due to the adverse progress of refinancing, which affected the income of data Lake construction. At the same time, the adjustment of accounting treatment policies will fully offset the unrealized profits of internal transactions between data Lake project companies in the current period.
The performance of Q1 in the year of 22 became positive, the proportion of data operation business increased significantly, and the impact of accounting adjustment was limited.
In 2022, Q1 is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 28-36 million yuan, deduct the non net profit of 13-16 million yuan, and the net profit becomes positive. We believe that the main reason is that the company has focused on the development of asset light data operation and reduced capital investment since H2 in 21 years, and the impact of accounting standard adjustment on the performance of 22 years is limited.
The first data bank was officially put into operation, realizing the closed-loop business of data "collection, storage, governance, use and ease".
In February 2022, the company Fuzhou data bank was officially put into operation, becoming the first in China, gathering about 1.6 billion authorized government data from more than 30 government commissions and bureaus related to finance, medical treatment, agriculture, transportation, culture and tourism, and realizing regular updating. The company's data banking business realizes the closed-loop business of "collection, storage, governance, use and ease" of data elements. As the data lake around the company enters the operation period, it is expected to replicate Fuzhou mode and become a new performance growth point.
Benefiting from the double carbon policy and the East digital West computing project, the growth of the company's enterprise Blu ray storage business can be expected.
Blu ray storage has the outstanding advantages of large capacity, low cost, long service life and low power consumption, which is very suitable for the construction of green and energy-saving data center under the dual carbon policy. The central and western regions of the National East West computing project mainly undertake data backup and storage, calculation analysis and model training. The eight planned computing power hub companies have laid out data lakes in five of them. We judge that with the continuous implementation of the double carbon policy and the East digital West computing project, the company's enterprise Blu ray storage equipment and solutions will usher in strong demand and growth.
Profit forecast and valuation
We predict that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 2.013 billion, RMB 2.973 billion and RMB 3.720 billion respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB -174 million, RMB 197 million and RMB 310 million respectively. The predicted net profit attributable to the parent company from 22 to 23 will correspond to 79 and 50 times of the current stock price PE respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip 1 The government's investment in digital economy infrastructure did not meet expectations; 2. The progress of refinancing is not as expected
