\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 719 Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) )
Core view
Event: 1) the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 9.324 billion yuan / + 18.11%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 282 million yuan / - 18.06%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 206 million yuan / - 25.15%. 2) In Q4 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 2.755 billion yuan / + 16.53%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of - 34 million yuan / - 142.17%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of - 38 million yuan / - 164.85%.
E-commerce and group buying have made some efforts, and the revenue growth in new markets is steady. 1) In terms of sub channels, the e-commerce / franchise / direct sales / group purchase business of 21a company achieved revenue of 48.58/25.56/14.09/321 million yuan respectively, yoy + 21.42% / 8.76% / 14.45% / 208.58%. The e-commerce and group purchase business maintained good growth. The e-commerce business is expected to be the company's refined operation to resist the impact of platform traffic adjustment and develop social e-commerce channels; The group purchase business is due to the low base and the increased investment of the company (at present, the provincial gift distribution agent has covered 14 provinces and provides solutions for customers' personalized needs). 2) In terms of regions, the company's revenue in Central China / East China / Southwest / South China was RMB 20.25/7.71/552477 million respectively, yoy + 3.58% / 18.78% / 20.88% / 11.79%, and the new market in East China / Southwest / South China maintained a steady growth rate. 3) Quarter by quarter, the company's 21q4 revenue yoy + 16.53% vs 21q3 + 11.89%, the revenue growth accelerated month on month, and the Spring Festival is expected to contribute in advance.
Due to the slowdown of store adjustment and opening, the speed of expanding stores increased month on month. 1) By the end of the 21st century, the company had 907 / 2067 direct / franchise stores, a net increase of 157 / 116 compared with the end of the 20th century; The expansion speed of the company's stores has slowed down, mainly due to the adjustment of the company's stores and the high closing rate (619 new stores vs 346 closed stores in 21 years); 2) In terms of sub regions, the company has a net increase of 40 / 7 / 76 / 37 / 106 / 7 stores in East China / South China / Central China / Northwest / Southwest / North China respectively, and the expansion in East China, central China and southwest China is rapid; 3) Quarterly, the company's store expansion speed has accelerated, with a net increase of 45 / - 19 / 43 / 204 stores in 21q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 respectively. With the end of the company's store adjustment, the company's store closure rate is expected to remain stable and the speed of store expansion is expected to accelerate.
The decline of e-commerce gross profit margin has led to the pressure on the overall gross profit margin, and the promotion expense rate has increased. 1) In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company's main business was 26.98% / -0.47pct, of which the gross profit margin of e-commerce was 23.48% / -1.25pct, the gross profit margin of franchise was 22.22% / + 0.63pct, the gross profit margin of direct business was 47.96% / + 0.29pct, and the gross profit margin of group purchase business was 25.82% / + 0.37pct. The decline of e-commerce gross profit margin led to the decline of the overall gross profit margin; 2) In 2021, the company's sales expense rate was 17.94% / + 1.62pct, the management expense rate was 5.12% / + 0.35pct, the R & D expense rate was 0.43% / + 0.00pct, and the financial expense rate was -0.42% / - 0.11pct. The increase in the sales expense rate was mainly due to the increase in the promotion expense rate (21 years + 1.10pct). 3) The net interest rate attributable to the parent company is 3.02% / -1.33pct, deducting the net interest rate not attributable to the parent company of 2.21% / -1.28pct.
In the short term, the company has faced many challenges since 20 years, such as the decentralization of platform traffic and the repeated impact of the epidemic on offline passenger flow. However, the company has maintained a steady pace of operation, changed its business ideas for online platform e-commerce, accelerated social e-commerce channels such as trembling, and grasped the entrance of new traffic; Offline actively respond to the challenge of changing the passenger flow structure under the normalization of the epidemic, adjust the stores, and the marginal improvement can be expected. In the long run, we believe that the model of full category coverage and full channel layout is actually a more advanced model among leisure snack enterprises, which enables them to actively respond to the diversified and changeable needs of the downstream and the continuous reform of the channel side, and we are optimistic about the medium and long-term logic of the company's listing in the 100 billion snack track.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Due to the slow growth of single store revenue and increased investment in e-commerce business under the influence of store adjustment and epidemic situation, we predict that the company's eps0.5% in 202224 93 / 1.14/1.36 yuan (1.23/1.43 yuan in 22 / 23 years before adjustment), using the comparable company valuation method, 31 times the valuation in 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 28.83 yuan, maintaining the "overweight rating".
Risk tips
Store expansion is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies; Food safety issues
