\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 99 Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report, and its performance reached market expectations. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 226225 billion yuan, yoy + 16.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.132 billion yuan, yoy-31.1%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 4.996 billion, yoy-43.2%. In Q4 alone, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 63.5 billion yuan, yoy + 15.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 451 million yuan, yoy-50.49%; Deduct 839 million yuan of net profit not attributable to parent company, yoy-66.84%.
Demand recovery + price increase, Q4 revenue increased month on month. The company's revenue in the single quarter of 21q1-q4 was + 28.0% / + 10.8% / + 12.2% / + 15.6% year-on-year respectively. The revenue of kitchen products increased by 17.14% and the revenue of feed raw materials and oil technology increased by 13.83% year-on-year. The revenue growth was relatively stable. Since 21h2, the company's single quarter revenue has gradually accelerated. (1) we believe that the company is a small-scale brand in the process of continuous decline in the grain and oil industry, and we believe that the company is in the process of emerging from the market; (2) Catering side: China's epidemic has been effectively controlled, China's catering market has recovered, and catering channels have been gradually restored; (3) Price increase: the company adjusted the prices of different oils at the end of 20 and from March to April of 21, with an overall price increase of about 10% - 15%.
Squeezing and small packaging profits "double kill", and the performance continues to be under pressure. In 2021, the company's soybean crushing scale decreased significantly, and the actual oilseed crushing capacity decreased by 29.58% in the whole year. We expect that the soybean crushing profit in 2021 will be negative for a long time. In 2021, the gross profit margin of kitchen food was 8.3%, down 3.2pct at the same time. We expect that the main reasons are as follows: ① the cost of raw materials increased significantly. Although the company raised the price of some products, it did not fully cover the increase of raw material cost, and the profit decreased year-on-year; ② The intensified market competition and the factors of weak consumption have greatly affected the sales volume of the company's medium and high-end retail products; ③ With the recovery of catering channels, the proportion of sales of catering channel products with low gross profit margin increased. In addition, the company incurred some losses on derivative financial instruments related to hedging soybean business. Under this influence, the company's annual net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.83%, down 1.25 PCT at the same time.
The central kitchen project is about to be put into operation, and the condiment business is still in the spotlight. Relying on the company's rich grain and oil product matrix, national production base and logistics supply chain system, the central kitchen project realizes the industrialization of table food, which is expected to become a new performance driver of the company. Hangzhou central kitchen project is expected to be put into operation in the second quarter of 2022, which will be the preliminary water test of the central kitchen project. In terms of condiment business, the company's Wanzhuang soy sauce phase II project in Taizhou is under preparation, and the production capacity will double after completion. At the same time, the company is preparing to build a factory in Yangjiang, Guangdong, and plans to produce Cantonese soy sauce. In the future, the company will adopt dual brand and dual strategy to develop soy sauce business. The company's Liangfen vinegar factory in Shanxi is also expanding its production.
Investment advice: maintain the "buy" rating. Considering the higher than expected increase of raw materials in the upstream, the impact of the epidemic on the recovery of downstream demand, and the steady progress of condiments and central kitchen projects, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 22-24 years will be 2571 / 2896 / 321.7 billion yuan respectively (2579 / 279.5 billion yuan in the previous 22 / 23 years), the net profit will be 65.40/82.099632 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 1.21/1.51/1.78 yuan respectively (1.37/1.62 yuan in the previous 22 / 23 years), The corresponding current PE is 41 / 33 / 28 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: food safety risk, risk of sharp rise in raw material prices, hedging risk and risk that new business expansion is less than expected.
