\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 99 Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) )
Event: on March 23, the company released its annual report for 2021, with annual revenue of 226225 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.06%; Q4 was 63.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.61%. The annual net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.132 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 31.15%; Q4 was 451 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 50.55%. The annual basic EPS is 0.76 yuan.
The revenue of the main business increased steadily, the total sales of main products decreased and the average price increased. In 2021, there was great upward pressure on the annual cost, and the average sales price of the company’s main products increased year-on-year, but it was still unable to fully cover the upward range of the cost. Gross profit margin and net profit attributable to the parent decreased significantly year-on-year. Specifically, in 21 years, the revenue of kitchen food / feed raw materials was 142.0/82.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.14% / + 13.83%, and that of 21h2 was 76.0/46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.08% / + 15.03%. In 21 years, the sales volume of kitchen food / feed raw materials was 20.66/22.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 3.25% / – 9.23%; 21h2 achieved sales of 12.63/14.72 million tons, a year-on-year increase of -1.03% / – 5.35%. In 21 years, the average selling price of kitchen food / feed raw materials was 6873 / 3612 (yuan / ton), a year-on-year increase of + 13.45% / + 25.41%; The average selling price of 21h2 was 6019 / 3127 (yuan / ton), a year-on-year increase of + 14.27% / + 21.53%, because the company raised the price of main products, resulting in the increase of the overall average selling price year-on-year.
The rising cost of raw materials and changes in product structure depress the gross profit margin, and the company reduces sales investment to alleviate the pressure. The gross profit margin of the company in 21 years was 8.18%, year-on-year -4.15ppt (21q4 was 6.70%, year-on-year -6.22ppt). The gross profit margin of kitchen food / feed raw materials in 21 years was 8.30% / 7.41%, with a year-on-year increase of -3.20ppt / – 2.22ppt respectively. In terms of kitchen food, (1) the company raised the selling price of some products, but the range was not enough to cover the cost increase; (2) The sales volume of medium and high-end retail products is greatly negatively affected by factors such as intensified market competition and weak consumption; (3) The catering market recovered, and the proportion of product sales of catering channels with low gross profit margin increased. In terms of feed raw materials, (1) the purchase and pressing volume of soybean decreased year-on-year, and the pressing profit decreased; (2) Hedging soybean related businesses have incurred certain losses.
In 21 years, the company’s sales expense ratio was 2.93%, year-on-year -1.42ppt (21q4 was 2.63%, year-on-year -1.77ppt), which was due to the reduction of advertising and promotion expenses. The management expense ratio was 1.51%, year-on-year + 0.05ppt (21q4 was 1.75%, year-on-year + 0.33ppt). The R & D expense rate was 0.11%, year-on-year + 0.02ppt (21q4 was 0.17%, year-on-year + 0.07ppt), which was due to the increase of salary and outsourcing R & D expenses. The financial expense ratio was 0.11%, year-on-year + 0.54ppt (21q4 was 0.17%, year-on-year + 0.66ppt), which was due to the decrease of interest income.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company will achieve a revenue of 257874/290237/324921 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 76.77/89.23/10.487 billion yuan in 22-24 years, equivalent to EPS of 1.42/1.65/1.93 yuan respectively. At present, the stock price corresponds to 35 / 30 / 26 times of PE in 22-24 years. At present, the company’s valuation in 2022 is 43 times lower than the overall level of the seasoning sector (wind unanimously predicted that CITIC industry). The company is a leading enterprise in the kitchen food industry. Edible oil, rice noodles and other products have strong scale advantages and brand effect. In 2022, the central kitchen projects in Hangzhou, Chongqing, Langfang and other places are expected to be put into operation one after another, and the company has good medium and long-term growth. To sum up, maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: industry competition intensifies, cost rises exceed expectations, food safety problems, etc
