\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 196 Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) )
Key investment points
Event: on March 22, 2022, the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the total operating revenue was 39.005 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.70%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.735 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.28%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 3.277 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.60%.
Continue to increase R & D investment and accelerate the implementation of innovative R & D. The company continued to increase its R & D investment, focusing on innovative drugs. In 21 years, the R & D investment was 4.975 billion yuan (+ 24.28%), and the R & D cost was 3.835 billion yuan (+ 37.17%). By the end of February 22, fubitai had been vaccinated with 20 + million doses in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan; The first car-t product approved for listing in China, yikaida (akilunsai injection), has been included in Huimin insurance and 40 + commercial insurance in 23 cities. In addition, the listing application for the first indication of the PD-1 inhibitor Sullivan has been included in the priority review, and the listing application for the second indication has been accepted; Hanbeitai (bevacizumab), Yibao (human erythropoietin for injection) and other products have been approved for listing, and fcn-437c and other products under research have entered clinical phase III.
The global operation capacity is further improved and the overseas layout is forward-looking. In the 21st year, the overseas revenue was 13.599 billion yuan, accounting for 34.86%. With the United States as the second headquarters, a global business pattern with full coverage of research, production and marketing was basically formed. The overseas commercialization team has 1200 + people. It has built marketing platforms in the United States, Africa and Europe and realized direct sales of preparations to the U.S. market. The device business has covered medium-sized regions in Europe and America, and diagnostic reagents have been sold in 10 + countries. In January and March of 22, the Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) industry successively obtained the MPP license to produce and supply MSD and Pfizer covid-19 oral drugs to low - and middle-income countries in the agreed region.
The performance of the pharmaceutical industry increased significantly, and the proportion of innovative products increased. In the 21st year, the pharmaceutical industry realized a revenue of 28.904 billion yuan (+ 32.10%, accounting for 74%). The proportion of innovative products increased to 25%, and the core driving factors are mainly as follows: 1) in 21 years, fubitai sold 22 million doses in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan; Hanlikang (rituximab) achieved revenue of 1.69 billion yuan (+ 125.33%); Han trastuzumab (trastuzumab) and Su Kexin (avatripopa) achieved an income of 930 million yuan and 426 million yuan. 2) Gland's revenue was + 29.48%, thanks to the contribution of micafungin, enoxaparin sodium injection and new products on the market.
Device diagnosis + medical services performed well, and the revenue accounted for 25% - 28%. The revenue of device diagnosis is 5.938 billion yuan (+ 13.82%), with highlights in all business segments, and the business has been widely distributed in 10 + countries; The medical service revenue was 4.118 billion yuan (+ 29.82%), the company opened up Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) , and integrated specialist resources. From 2017 to 2021, the proportion of device diagnosis + medical service business remained stable, basically maintained at 25% - 28%.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: considering that the company has entered a large-scale period of many biological similar drugs and superimposed the new increment contributed by fubitai and cart, we estimate that the operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 44.5 billion yuan, 50.6 billion yuan and 59.9 billion yuan respectively (the value before 202223 forecast is 41.2 billion yuan and 46.8 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 14.17%, 13.70% and 18.23%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.8 billion yuan, 7.4 billion yuan and 9.2 billion yuan respectively (the predicted value before 202223 was 5.4 billion yuan and 6.5 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 22.87%, 27.02% and 24.12%. The company is one of the leading enterprises of innovative drugs in China. Innovative drugs have entered the centralized harvest period, the main business structure has improved and returned to growth, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the extension M & A fails to meet expectations; Risk of failure in new drug research and development; The risk that the decrease and scope of chemical generic drug procurement exceed expectations; Risk that the information and data used in the research report are not updated in time
