\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 013 Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 14.992 billion yuan (+ 22.64%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.271 billion yuan (+ 18.27%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.112 billion yuan (+ 22.52%).
The main aviation industry leads the growth, and the revenue growth rate reaches a new high. The 22-year business goal indicates a better profitability. In the 21st year, the company exceeded its business objectives, achieving revenue of 11.163 billion yuan (+ 23.84%) for aviation products, 3.72 billion yuan (+ 19.50%) for non aviation products, and 109 million yuan (+ 11.22%) for modern service industry and others. Benefiting from the large volume of downstream military aircraft, the main aviation industry led revenue growth, with the highest growth rate in a decade. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 24.41% (- 2.33 PCTs), mainly due to the year-on-year decrease of 2.74 PCTs to 27.05% of the gross profit margin of aviation products. The comprehensive period cost rate is 9.66% (- 2.96 PCTs), and the R & D cost rate is 5.17% (+ 0.32 PCT). To sum up, the company's net interest rate decreased by 0.36pct to 9.01%. At the same time, the annual report gives the 22-year business target, which is expected to achieve a revenue of 15.447 billion yuan (+ 3.03%) and a total profit of 1.674 billion yuan (+ 9.55%).
The contractual liabilities reached 2.561 billion yuan, the operating cash flow was good, and the related party transactions were expected to increase. At the end of the period, the company's advance receipts and contract liabilities were 2.561 billion yuan (+ 566.98%), and its inventory was 6.228 billion yuan (+ 18.02%), indicating that the demand for orders was accelerating and the company was actively preparing for production. The company received the advance contract payment from the main engine factory, and the cash flow was significantly improved. The net cash flow from operating activities in 21 years reached 6.375 billion yuan (+ 393.04%). In addition, the sales amount of related party transactions of the company in 21 years was 8.589 billion yuan (+ 49.14%), and the sales amount of related party transactions was expected to reach 13 billion yuan in 22 years, an increase of 30% compared with that in 21 years, reflecting the continuous high boom of military aircraft supporting business.
As a professional integration platform for aviation electromechanical business, the company will continue to benefit from the development of aviation business in the future. As a professional integration platform for aviation electromechanical business under the aviation industry, the company has successively carried out asset integration of 12 aviation electromechanical enterprises since 2013. In addition, the company has managed the airborne systems company and eight subordinate units of the aviation industry, and the company's entrusted asset income reached 7.4 billion yuan in 21 years. In the future, the company is expected to benefit from supporting military aircraft (accelerating the replacement and train loading of military aircraft) + MRO (increasing the use intensity and concentration to life) + supporting civil aircraft (releasing the production capacity of domestic civil aircraft and improving the localization rate of electromechanical system), with broad growth space.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
According to the increase in the revenue expectation of aviation products and other manufacturing businesses in the company's annual report, we predict that the company's earnings per share from 2022 to 2023 will be 0.40 and 0.48 yuan respectively (the previous value is 0.38 and 0.45), with a new 24-year EPS of 0.45 yuan 58 yuan, according to the price earnings ratio of 35 times in 22 years given by comparable companies, corresponding to the target price of 14 yuan, maintain the buy rating.
Risk tips
The delivery schedule of aviation products is lower than expected
