\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 239 Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) )
Event: Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) released the 2021 annual report, and achieved an operating revenue of 960 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 43.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 139 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 91.1%; Deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 124 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 76.25%. The increase of market and customer demand in the downstream aviation, aerospace, gas turbine and energy equipment fields has led to the growth of operating revenue. Under the large-scale effect, the company has further reduced costs and increased efficiency, and the profit has increased significantly.
Q4's revenue and profit reached a new high, with full orders and active preparation for production and goods: the company's Q4 achieved a revenue of 330 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 51.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 48.03 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 101.1%; Q4 achieved a gross profit margin of 32.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4 percentage points; The net interest rate was 14.5%, a year-on-year increase of 3.6 percentage points. By the end of 2021, the company still had 1.22 billion yuan of orders in hand, which laid a good foundation for the performance in 2022; The prepayment was 52.31 million yuan and the inventory was 570 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 132% and 40% respectively, indicating that the company actively prepared production and goods to ensure product delivery.
The profitability has been steadily improved, and the R & D investment has continued to increase: with the expansion of the company's sales volume, the profitability has been steadily improved in recent years, and the gross profit margin will be 32.6% in 2021, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year; The net interest rate was 14.5%, a year-on-year increase of 3.6 percentage points. The cost reduction and efficiency increase were implemented, and the cost control was good. In 2021, the cost rates of sales, management and finance were 1.9%, 6.0% and 1.6% respectively. The cost rate during the period was basically the same as that in the same period last year. The R & D cost was 48.64 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 80%. The overall R & D strength and core technology established the competitive advantage of the company.
Aviation forging revenue increased by 30%, accounting for nearly 70% of the total revenue: the company's main products are aviation engine ring forgings, as well as aviation forgings for APU, aircraft nacelle and other aircraft components. The company's aviation engine forgings are applied to a variety of domestic aeroengines in pre research, in research and in service in China, including the Yangtze River series domestic commercial aeroengines, as well as a variety of new generation commercial aeroengines developed and produced by international aeroengine manufacturers such as GE, Pratt Whitney, SaiFeng, Luoluo and MTU. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 670 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 30%, accounting for nearly 70% of the total revenue; The gross profit margin of aviation forgings was 32.5%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year.
Aerospace, energy and gas turbine bring new growth points: the company's Aerospace Forgings are used in launch vehicle engines and missile systems, including various cylindrical shells used to connect various segments of aerospace equipment. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 150 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 97.7% and a gross profit margin of 31.5%. Gas turbine forgings are used in Shipborne gas turbines such as destroyers and frigates and industrial gas turbines. In 2021, the revenue is 38.05 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 60.5%, and the gross profit margin is 34.3%. Energy equipment forgings mainly include various bearing forgings of wind power equipment, various valve bodies, cylinders and flanges of nuclear power equipment, and titanium rings / cathode rollers of electrolytic copper foil equipment, the basic material for the production of lithium electronic batteries. In 2021, the revenue was 64.56 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 112.4%, and the gross profit rate was 40.6%.
Raising capital to reach production is imminent, and capacity improvement boosts performance growth: the company's initial raising capital to invest in Sichuan Deyang project is expected to be completed in August 2022. By improving the process layout, introducing advanced equipment and building an aviation forging digital smart factory, the production capacity of the company's core products will be greatly expanded and the company's core competitiveness and market share will be improved. The project is planned to reach full production after two years of operation. After reaching the production capacity, it is expected to increase the sales revenue by 1.16 billion yuan per year, effectively ensure the delivery capacity of core products and boost the performance growth of the company.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 190 / 280 / 400 million respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 40 / 28 / 20 times. The company is the core supplier of ring forgings of AVIC, with full orders on hand and capacity release, which will effectively ensure the company's supply, support performance growth and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: the risk that the expansion of civil products business is less than expected; Risk of price fluctuation of raw materials; The risk of the epidemic affecting the company's overseas sales.
