\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 597 Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 5.845 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.44%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.177 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.82%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 995 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.51%, and a basic earnings per share of 2.10 yuan. The company also announced the dividend plan, which plans to pay a cash dividend of 6.5 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
Sweeteners are booming, and new products are put into operation to jointly promote performance growth. The company is a leading enterprise in the field of food additives in China. Its main business includes sweeteners such as sucralose and Acer, as well as bulk chemicals such as hydrogen peroxide, sulfuric acid and nitric acid. In 2021, driven by the improvement of people's health awareness, sugar free drinks became more and more popular, and the penetration rate continued to rise, which promoted the demand of the company's main sweetener products, superimposed the contraction of the supply end. Since the second half of 2021, the prices of sweeteners such as sucralose and acesulfame have increased significantly, which promoted the growth of the company's food additive business. In addition, with the recovery of the global economy driving demand growth, the prices of the company's basic chemical products have increased significantly. In terms of output, in 2021, the company's 5000 tons of sucralose project, 4500 tons of Jiale musk solution and 1000 tons of furan ammonium salt project were completed and put into operation, contributing part of the increment to the company. Driven by a number of factors, the company achieved an annual operating revenue of 5.845 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.44%. Among them, the income from food additives was 3.029 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.32%, and the income from bulk chemicals business was 2.133 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.68%. In the whole year, the company realized a net profit of 1.177 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.82%.
The company's annual profitability improved slightly, including the gross profit margin of food additives business was 33.57%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.68 percentage points, and the gross profit margin of bulk chemicals business was 24.94%, a year-on-year increase of 5.84 percentage points. The company has a high degree of industrial chain integration and is self-sufficient in most raw materials. Despite the sharp rise in raw materials, it still maintains a strong profitability.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company's product prices continued to rise, among which sucralose, acesulfame, methyl maltol, ethyl maltol and other sweeteners increased significantly in the fourth quarter. Benefiting from this, the company realized an operating revenue of 1.826 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 91.39% and a month on month increase of 18.19%; The net profit was 464 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 150.06% and a month on month increase of 69.34%.
The sweetener industry has broad prospects and the boom is expected to continue. With the improvement of people's living standards, health awareness is also strengthening. Controlling sugar intake gradually goes deep into people's dietary concept. At the same time, national policies have gradually shifted to promoting "less saccharification" of diet. Driven by policies and public health awareness, the traditional use of sucrose is gradually decreasing, and the demand for sugar free foods such as sugar free beverages is growing rapidly. At present, sucrose accounts for 78% of the total market demand of sweetening materials in the world, and artificial sweeteners account for less than 10% of the market, providing a broad growth space for the artificial sweetener market.
Among artificial sweeteners, acesulfame and sucralose are gradually becoming mainstream sweeteners due to their good safety, high sweet price ratio and pure taste, and the demand is expected to grow rapidly; In terms of supply, the new capacity of the industry will be limited in the future. Due to the influence of policies such as dual control of energy consumption, it will put some pressure on the supply of the industry. With the rapid growth of demand in the future, the prosperity of sweetener industry is expected to continue, and the price is expected to remain at a high position, which will guarantee the company's profits.
Continuous improvement of industrial chain integration to ensure the leading position of the company. The company is a leading sweetener enterprise in the world. The production capacity of Acer and sucralose account for more than 50% of the global production capacity. In recent years, the company has continuously extended the industrial chain to the upstream, improved the degree of integration and improved the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials. At present, the company can produce sulfoxide chloride, diketene, furfural and other raw materials, of which diketene and furfural can be completely self-sufficient. The 40000 ton unit of Acer chloride phase II has been started, which can fully meet the needs of the company at that time; In addition, the company has also planned the production capacity of 30000 tons of DMF, and has completed the EIA at present. After all these projects are put into operation, the company's industrial chain integration will be further improved and its competitive advantage will be further improved.
Profit forecast and investment rating: it is estimated that the company's EPS in 2022 and 2023 will be 2.83 yuan and 3.47 yuan. Based on the closing price of 38.99 yuan on March 23, PE will be 13.79 times and 11.24 times respectively, giving the company an investment rating of "overweight".
Risk tip: the price of raw materials has risen sharply and the demand growth is less than expected
