Matters:
On March 23, 2022, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035). The plan defined the energy attributes of hydrogen, put forward the basic principles for the development of hydrogen energy industry, put forward the objectives of each stage of the development of hydrogen energy industry, and deployed important measures to promote the high-quality development of hydrogen energy industry.
Ping An View:
The state attaches great importance to the development of hydrogen energy industry. According to the requirements of the opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on completely, accurately and comprehensively implementing the new development concept and doing a good job in carbon peak and carbon neutralization, comprehensively promote the development of the whole chain of hydrogen energy “production, storage, transmission and use”, promote the construction of hydrogen refueling stations, promote the tackling of low-carbon cutting-edge technologies such as hydrogen production from renewable energy, and strengthen the R & D, demonstration and large-scale application of key technologies for hydrogen energy production, storage and application.
The notice of the State Council on printing and distributing the action plan for carbon peak before 2030 clearly stipulates to accelerate the R & D and demonstration application of hydrogen energy technology and explore large-scale applications in industries, transportation, construction and other fields.
The outline of the 14th five year plan proposes to organize the implementation of future industry incubation and acceleration plans and plan the layout of a number of future industries in cutting-edge scientific and technological and industrial transformation fields such as hydrogen energy and energy storage. In order to promote the standardized, orderly and high-quality development of hydrogen energy industry, with the consent of the State Council, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the medium and long-term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035).
The plan defines the energy attribute of hydrogen. Hydrogen energy is an integral part of the future national energy system. Give full play to the clean and low-carbon characteristics of hydrogen energy, and promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy consumption terminals such as transportation and industry and industries with high energy consumption and high emission. At the same time, it is clear that hydrogen energy is the key direction of strategic emerging industries and a new growth point for building a green and low-carbon industrial system and industrial transformation and upgrading.
The plan puts forward the objectives of each stage of the development of hydrogen energy industry. By 2025, we will basically master the core technology and manufacturing process, have about 50000 fuel cell vehicles, deploy and build a number of hydrogen refueling stations, produce 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 tons of hydrogen per year from renewable energy, and reduce carbon dioxide by 1-2 million tons per year. By 2030, a relatively complete technological innovation system for hydrogen energy industry and a clean energy hydrogen production and supply system will be formed to effectively support the realization of the carbon peak goal. By 2035, a diversified application ecology of hydrogen energy will be formed, and the proportion of hydrogen production from renewable energy in terminal energy consumption will increase significantly.
In terms of hydrogen production, it mainly includes gray hydrogen, blue hydrogen and green hydrogen. At present, China’s hydrogen mainly comes from gray hydrogen. Hydrogen production from industrial by-product gas has significant advantages in technical, economic and environmental aspects. We estimate that by the end of 2022, the by-product hydrogen of propane dehydrogenation and ethane cracking project can provide about 360000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles every year. The industrial by-product hydrogen can almost cover Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong, which can match the hydrogen energy demonstration area and provide relatively low-cost hydrogen energy. Hydrogen production from electrolytic water has the characteristics of green environmental protection, flexible production, high purity and by-product high-value oxygen, but its unit energy consumption is about 4-5 kwh / cubic hydrogen, and the electricity price accounts for more than 70% of the total cost. If the existing power production is adopted, the cost of hydrogen production is about 30-40 yuan / kg. It is generally believed that when the electricity price is lower than 0.3 yuan / kW, it has good economy. At present, the hydrogen production technology of electrolytic water mainly includes alkaline hydrolysis cell (AE), proton exchange membrane water electrolysis cell (PEM) and solid oxide water electrolysis cell (SOE). Among them, the alkaline electrolytic cell technology is the most mature and the production cost is low. In the future, the production of green hydrogen from electrolytic water supporting large-scale photovoltaic power generation or wind power generation will become a development trend.
In terms of hydrogen storage and transportation, the current hydrogen energy storage is mainly high-pressure hydrogen storage. Hydrogen storage methods mainly include gaseous hydrogen storage, liquid hydrogen storage and solid hydrogen storage. From the perspective of technological development direction, at present, the high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage technology is relatively mature, which is the main hydrogen storage technology in China; Organic liquid hydrogen storage technology has unique safety and transportation convenience, but it still has many technical problems and will have great application prospects in the future; The application of solid-state hydrogen storage in fuel cell vehicles has obvious advantages, but now the technology needs to be broken through, and the development potential is relatively large in the long run.
Investment suggestion: hydrogen energy planning points out the direction for industrial development. From the law of industrial development, hydrogen production and storage facilities are the infrastructure of hydrogen energy industry. In the process of industrial development, it is necessary to build moderately ahead of schedule in order to support industrial development. Hydrogen produced by chemical process is the most realistic hydrogen source in the short term; In the future, large-scale photovoltaic power generation or wind power generation will be supported by electrolytic water to produce green hydrogen. The storage and transportation of hydrogen is the key link restricting the industrial development. The development of hydrogen energy industry brings new opportunities to the pressure vessel industry, and the requirements for materials are higher and higher; The storage and transportation cost accounts for about 30% of the total cost. Economic, efficient and safe storage and transportation technology has become one of the main bottlenecks restricting the large-scale application of hydrogen energy. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant industrial chain companies such as by-product hydrogen, electrolytic cell equipment, high-pressure hydrogen container manufacturing, steel and carbon fiber for storage tanks.
Risk tips: (1) the implementation of the policy is less than expected: the implementation of the carbon neutralization policy is less than expected, which will have an adverse impact on the promotion of hydrogen energy. (2) The price of hydrogen energy is difficult to drop significantly:
The price of hydrogen energy is difficult to drop significantly, the economic advantage is not obvious, and the promotion is less than expected. (3) The decline of fuel cell cost is less than expected: if the cost is difficult to decrease significantly, or it will affect the popularization and application of hydrogen energy. (4) The development of industrial applications such as hydrogen energy metallurgy is less than expected: the progress of industrial applications is less than expected or the cost is difficult to drop significantly, which has a certain impact on the industrial application of hydrogen energy. (5) The development of hydrogen energy storage technology is less than expected: the R & D Progress of advanced hydrogen storage technologies such as high-pressure gas, liquid and solid is less than expected, and the performance of relevant companies is affected.
