Introduction to the report:
The 14th five year plan for modern energy system emphasizes the simultaneous development of energy security and low-carbon transformation, improving the flexibility of the energy system and weakening the specific goal of new energy installation.
Summary:
Investment suggestion: maintain the “overweight” rating of public utilities, and recommend the targets of traditional energy transformation and new energy power generation with growth attribute under the dual carbon target. (1) Transformation of thermal power into new energy: revaluation of stock assets, transformation to create the second growth curve, recommend Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , and benefit the target China Resources Power and China power; (2) New energy operators: under the background of transformation, the certainty of installed capacity growth is strong, and the policy catalysis is worth looking forward to. Longyuan Power and the beneficiary China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ; (3) Nuclear power:
The value of low-carbon base load appears and the long-term growth is considerable. It is recommended to China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , Cgn Power Co.Ltd(003816) .
Event: the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration officially released the “14th five year plan” for modern energy system
(hereinafter referred to as the “plan”) to put forward the overall blueprint and action plan for the energy industry such as power.
We believe that the core points are as follows:
Give priority to energy security and improve the flexibility of energy system. The plan emphasizes overall development and security, adheres to the principle of building first and then breaking, and overall planning, and constructs a modern energy system on the premise of ensuring security; It is required that the power emergency security guarantee ability of key cities, core areas and important users in the 14th five year plan be significantly improved. In addition to the guarantee of basic energy supply, considering the characteristics of peak valley difference of energy load, the plan points out to accelerate the development of regulated energy and improve the flexibility of energy system: by 25 years, the flexibility transformation scale of coal motor units will exceed 200 million KW, and the installed capacity of pumped storage will be more than 62gw; Flexible regulation of power supply accounts for about 24%, and the response capacity of power demand side reaches 3 ~ 5% of the maximum power load (5% in East China, central China and South China); The national gas storage capacity of intensive distribution is 55-60 billion cubic meters, accounting for about 13% of natural gas consumption.
Multi energy complements each other and desalinates the specific goal of new energy installation. The plan emphasizes accelerating the green and low-carbon transformation of energy, gradually increasing the proportion of new energy, and promoting the optimal combination of coal and new energy.
The plan defines the path of energy transformation and improves the level of electrification and low-carbon: in 25 years, electric energy accounts for about 30% of terminal energy consumption, non fossil energy consumption accounts for about 20%, and non fossil energy power generation accounts for about 39%. Taking into account factors such as multi energy complementarity and comprehensive consumption, the plan only proposes the total installed capacity (about 3 billion kw in 25 years and about 800 million kW in the 14th five year plan) and the installed capacity of some power sources. (1) New energy (wind power and photovoltaic): comprehensively promote the large-scale development and high-quality development of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation, but the specific goal of installation has not been clarified (we expect it will still be the main body of installation increment in the 14th five year plan). (2) Hydropower: develop according to local conditions, and the installed capacity target of conventional hydropower in 25 years is about 380 GW (3) Nuclear power: actively, safely and orderly development. The 25-year nuclear power operation and installation target is about 70 GW (the same as the early planning target). We expect that the nuclear power approval is expected to speed up. (4) Coal power: give play to the supporting and regulating role of coal power, reasonably build advanced coal power according to development needs, orderly eliminate backward production capacity of coal power, and eliminate 30GW (including expired retired units) during the 14th five year plan.
Risk factors: the demand for electricity is lower than expected, the installation progress of new energy is lower than expected, the increase of coal price is higher than expected, and the promotion of coal electricity price transmission mechanism is lower than expected.
