Viewpoint: according to the PMI data for four consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered the MLF and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, and the monetary easing cycle gradually opened. Under the expectation of abundant liquidity, the market as a whole was still boosted. In the short term, the "14th five year plan" for modern energy system has been announced, and new energy has been boosted again by policies. In the short term, there may be good expectations, which may also drive the small performance of growth stocks. After a continuous oversold rebound, with the shrinking of trading volume and the demand for index or technical correction, short-term investors should be cautious, and strategic allocators can continue to consider bargain hunting.
On the 22nd, the 14th five year plan for modern energy system was officially announced. The plan puts forward a series of objectives for the development of oil, new energy and hydrogen energy. Among them, accelerating the development of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation ranks first in the green and low-carbon transformation, becoming the top priority. In addition, new energy storage and hydrogen energy are also important wings of the new energy industry.
At the opening of today's trading, energy concept stocks were once popular. Here, traditional energy will not be mentioned. Let's focus on new energy. Since last year, the concept of new energy has soared continuously. The overall trend of photovoltaic Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) and wind energy is strong, and many stocks have doubled or even doubled several times. In fact, the expectation of new energy has already been opened. The energy system planning should be said to consolidate the direction and objectives of the development of new energy, and lay a policy foundation for these new energy when the general trend remains unchanged. However, it should be noted here that compared with photovoltaic and wind energy, the previous performance of hydrogen energy is relatively weak. This time, a series of goals are put forward for the development of hydrogen energy, which may contribute to the in-depth development of hydrogen energy sector.
Specifically, in the first three quarters of last year, photovoltaic and wind energy almost soared all the way. The overall sector is rising. Up to now, the prosperity is still high and there is still a foundation for good development. However, from the perspective of the effect of market operation superposition policy, it may enter the substantive stage next. If it was previously hyped, it is difficult to continue to strengthen at present, while the pure leading varieties may continue to perform under the boost of the policy. For hydrogen energy, the previous overall hype is not very big, and there is still a certain space.
Most of the new energy sectors are growth stocks. Under the stimulation of this policy, it may also drive the overall recovery of growth stocks, especially those that have been continuously adjusted since the fourth quarter of last year. With the superposition of emotional recovery, we can pay more attention to the leading varieties that have fallen too far.
Back in the market, after a continuous oversold rebound, the short-term market ushered in a certain differentiation. We need to keep an eye on the trend of heavyweights. If the overall decline is still due to the short-term technical correction of the index. At present, we are more inclined to the short-term adjustment of the index under differentiation, especially under the overall contraction of trading volume, the sustained kinetic energy of the rebound is declining, and the gem and Shenzhen composite index have been sideways for many days. We should also pay attention to the possible decline of the Shanghai index to form a technical adjustment resonance. Of course, it is still the same sentence. With the support and boost of many parties, if there is a technical adjustment, it is not the beginning of a new decline, but a good time to continue to consider the allocation of bargain hunting strategy.
Overall: after the sharp decline and rapid bottoming, the current market valuation has been at a historical low, the medium-term value has gradually become prominent, and the opportunity for strategic allocation is gradually coming. At present, the market as a whole has ushered in the shock and grinding bottom and the overall repair market. In this process, it is no longer suitable to be pessimistic about the market, but to consider new investment opportunities. In terms of specific opportunities, the investment opportunities of new and old infrastructure under steady growth deserve attention, and the overall repair market of new energy, semiconductors and other leading enterprises with high prosperity is also worth looking forward to when the first quarterly report is coming.
