Recently, the speculation on the theme of A-share short-term board connection has ebbed, the market is about to enter the disclosure period of the first quarterly report, and some high-quality sectors are expected to return to the popular track. The agency believes that scattered epidemic situations occur frequently, and the epidemic prevention sector may continue to attract market attention; There are signs of bottom warming, financial institutions and marginal trading.
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focus on Toughness requirements
The end of the policy and the end of the fundamentals have not been cleared, which is the core of the market. The current round of A-share net profit growth bottomed out from the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023. Compared with the financial stability maintenance in the fourth quarter of 2018, corporate profits have declined for seven quarters at that time, and the profits are in the process of bottoming out. However, the current round of profit growth is expected to reach the bottom at least in the fourth quarter of 2022. At the same time, the Fundamentals of A-Shares in the second quarter of 2022 are facing the pressure of both volume and profit. After the oil price broke through $100 / barrel in 2011, the gross profit margin of A-share non-financial petroleum and petrochemical continued to decline from 18.4% at the end of 2010 and fell to 15.9% in the first quarter of 2012. Among them, the gross profit margins of cycle, stability, consumption and midstream manufacturing were impacted to varying degrees.
In 1-2, from the industrial data and the first two months of the operation of listed companies, the data show that the industries with higher absolute prosperity are coal, nonferrous metals, basic chemical industry, medicine, power equipment, semiconductor, military industry and baijiu. Industries with fundamental pressure include agriculture, real estate, household appliances, furniture, construction, consumer electronics, epidemic travel chain, etc; The following industries are expected to maintain a high prosperity or usher in an upward turning point: medicine, military industry, photovoltaic, agriculture, industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , real estate industry chain.
Under the current market stability maintenance, the PE and Pb of Shanghai stock index and China Securities 500 are not much different from those in the fourth quarter of 2018, but the gem index is quite different. On October 18, 2018, the gem refers to only 27 times of PE (TTM) and 3.2 times of Pb, but on March 15, 2022, the gem refers to 48.6 times of PE (TTM) and 6.1 times of Pb.
The negative impact of overseas interest rate hikes on valuation has not been eliminated. The United States raised interest rates for the last time in the fourth quarter of 2018, but the United States has just started the process of raising interest rates. From the dot matrix, it is expected that the US will raise interest rates seven times this year and four times in 2023. At present, the industries with static PE and Pb less than 20% are: communication, medicine, environmental protection, banking, media, textile and clothing, petrochemical, real estate and non banking; At the same time, ERP stress test is conducted for different interest rates. The results show that TMT, real estate and medicine are still relatively cheap.
Compared with the industry valuation during financial stability maintenance in the fourth quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2022, the current valuation safety cushion of real estate, finance, petroleum and petrochemical is thicker. From the comparison of the early withdrawal range of track stocks, the consumer and financial sectors are more secure. Industry performance in the second quarter over the years: the probability of positive relative returns of food and beverage, medicine, household appliances and medical beauty is high (mainly in the field of consumer goods), while the probability of negative relative returns of building materials, construction, transportation and commercial retail is high. Based on the characteristics of prosperity, valuation, chips, policies and market transactions, sort out and comprehensively score the allocation logic of major industrial chains. In the second quarter of 2022, it is suggested to pay attention to: real estate, electric power, medicine, medical beauty, military industry and other industries.
Caixin Securities:
epidemic prevention sector or continue to attract attention
At present, Caixin securities judges that the A-share market rate will probably bottom out in 2022, but the market environment is more complex due to high inflation and repeated outbreaks. It is suggested to pay attention to these directions: 1. The theme of “steady growth”. In 2022, the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase and China’s demand is weak. In order to maintain the economic operation in a reasonable range, the national “steady growth” policy may be introduced, and relevant sectors may take the lead, focusing on infrastructure, building materials and real estate. 2. New economic theme. High end technology manufacturing industry may be an important driving force for future economic growth. It is suggested to pay attention to chip semiconductors and high-end manufacturing with accelerated domestic substitution and rapid growth of the industry. 3. Emerging consumption themes. At present, China’s PPI is at a high level and CPI rises slowly. The subsequent scissors difference between the two is expected to converge, and the industrial profits will shift from the upstream to the middle and downstream. It is expected that there will be some opportunities in the consumer sector. It is suggested to pay attention to food, beverage and household appliances. 4. Epidemic Damage theme. With the improvement of vaccination rates in developing countries such as Africa and Mexico, the global epidemic is expected to be further controlled. There is a valuation and repair power in the damaged sector of the epidemic, and we can pay attention to airports, tourism and cinemas.
Hot topic: sporadic outbreaks occur frequently, and the epidemic prevention sector may continue to attract market attention. Since March, the epidemic has rebounded in many places in China. Under the guidance of the policy of “dynamic clearing”, the epidemic rate is likely to be controllable, but the overall impact will increase. The relevant sectors such as epidemic prevention materials may continue to receive market attention, including Lanwei medicine and vinozan.
Guosheng Securities:
emotional marginal improvement
Combined with the latest trading sentiment tracking, the bottom signal appears, the sentiment margin warms up, and the trading structure is biased towards medicine and finance. On the one hand, under the sharp adjustment, the sentiment indicators continued to bottom, and the trend dominant indicators such as the number of new shares and MACD strong stocks fell to a record low, and the bottom signal appeared.
On the other hand, the interest rate hike boots have landed, the outflow of foreign capital has narrowed, the leverage sentiment has also repaired upward for three consecutive weeks recently, and the capital sentiment has released a certain marginal improvement signal. In terms of transaction structure, the transaction concentration has increased, the proportion of transactions between upstream (gold, copper, aluminum, lead and zinc) and mechanical equipment (energy and heavy equipment) has mostly decreased, the transaction focus has returned to medicine and finance, and the proportion of transactions such as chemical agents, securities, traditional Chinese medicine and in vitro diagnosis has increased.
The trading concentration of individual stocks rebounded, with the proportion of transactions of the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% stocks changing by 1.1%, 1.58% and 1.32% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles reached 79.7%, 84.1% and 84.7% respectively. The overall transaction concentration of the industry has rebounded, of which the proportion of transactions in the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% industries changed by 0.24%, 0.32% and 0.04% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles reached 1.5%, 11.8% and 13.9% respectively. Reporter Zhang Jian
