Since March, the pork sector has gradually rebounded after the bottom. As of March 23, the pork sector has risen by 2.12% during the period, outperforming the market (falling by 5.52% during the period). Among the 31 pork concept stocks, 27 outperformed the market, accounting for 87.10%. Among them, Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) , Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) and other three stocks ranked among the top three in terms of cumulative growth during the period, with 30.22%, 22.78% and 21.47% respectively, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) .
In this regard, Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu investment, said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that in the short term, the opportunity for the pork sector to continue to attack independently is limited. This is because the pig price has been adjusted for about a year, but it is still some time from the usual downward cycle of pig price of 1.5 to 2 years. At present, the high number of fertile sows and the sluggish pork consumption demand do not support the sharp rebound of pig price. In addition, the cost of feed and other costs are still increasing, and it takes time for relevant enterprises to operate well.
Although the pork sector rebounded, pig prices are still low. According to the data released by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the price of pigs has fallen for six weeks. In the third week of March, the average price of pigs in China was 12.62 yuan / kg, down 2.0% from the previous week and 55.7% year-on-year.
On March 22, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas held a department coordination meeting in Beijing to analyze the current situation of pig production and study measures to stabilize pig production. The meeting called for strengthening the information monitoring and early warning of the whole pig industry chain, actively guiding financial institutions to increase credit policy support, stabilize long-term support policies such as breeding land and environmental protection, accurately implement the regulation of pig production capacity and the regulation of frozen pork collection and storage, continue to pay attention to the prevention and control of African swine fever, and promote the stable and healthy development of pig production.
From the data on March 23, the pig price rebounded slightly. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, as of 14:00 today, the average price of pork in the national Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale market was 18.16 yuan / kg, up 0.9% from yesterday.
Although pork prices remained low last year, some companies that took the lead in releasing last year’s results made profits. As of the closing on March 23, four companies in the pork sector had issued annual reports for 2021, all of which were profitable Last year, the net profits of four companies including Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.Ltd(000048) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) were 389 million yuan, 259 million yuan, 28 million yuan and 26 million yuan respectively. Last year, the net profits of Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) increased by 102.84% year-on-year. In addition, there are four enterprises that have released the performance express for 2021, and only two enterprises have made profits. Among them, the net profits of Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) and Wellhope Foods Co.Ltd(603609) last year were RMB 1.601 billion and RMB 111 million respectively, while Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and Hunan Zhenghong Science And Technology Develop Co.Ltd(000702) suffered losses.
Since March, 13 individual stocks have obtained additional positions of northbound funds during the period, with a total of 41075100 shares. The number of additional positions of Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) and other four individual stocks has exceeded 5 million shares.
In terms of investment opportunities, sun Enxiang, a private placement network researcher interviewed by the reporter of Securities Daily, said that the investment value of the pork sector depends on the pork price. In the short term, the pork price will remain weak and volatile. On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, pork consumption decreased significantly due to the weakening of consumption capacity, and the price reduction intention of slaughter enterprises was also very strong; On the supply side, the willingness of the breeding side to sell is extremely positive. There are too many pigs to sell. Under the situation of imbalance between supply and demand, it is not conducive to the strengthening of pork prices. However, from the perspective of lengthening the cycle, the continuous loss of the pig breeding industry will strengthen the industry’s willingness to reduce production capacity and speed up the process. Therefore, a new round of pig cycle is expected to come in advance. In addition, at present, the pork sector has been fully adjusted and the safety margin is high. Therefore, the pork sector has entered the left layout stage.
Yuan Huaming, who holds a cautious view, said that the pork sector has performed more prominently since the second half of last year. It is estimated that there is little opportunity to further strengthen the strength and frequency of short-term policies, and there is a certain adjustment pressure on the sector. If consumption improves in the second half of the year and drives the recovery of pork consumption and prices, the investment opportunities in the pork sector may be better grasped at that time.
\u3000\u3000 “At present, the pig price has been at a deep loss in the industry for some time. Although the market expects the pig cycle to start from the second half of the year to next year, there may not be much increase in this round. The production capacity is relatively slow this time, and the head pig Enterprises are still expanding production. Unlike the steep decline in the short-term stock due to swine fever in 2018, including the elimination of a large number of fertile sows, which triggered the subsequent super pig cycle, this round There is no problem of excessive elimination in the supply of pigs, and the price of pigs is low. Coupled with the continuous rise in the price of feed, it is expected that the statements of pig enterprises in the first quarter of this year will suffer relatively large losses. Therefore, it is necessary to invest carefully in the early layout of pig cycle. ” Cheese fund manager Zhuang Hongdong told reporters.
Table: list of pork stocks rising since March p align = “center” prepared by Chu Lijun
