Key investment points:
The capital supply turned negative and the gap continued to expand. The total capital supply in this period is – 74.9 billion yuan, and the capital demand is 77.9 billion yuan. For the net Market inflow of – 152.8 billion yuan, compared with – 57.4 billion yuan in the previous period, the capital gap continues to expand.
New issues of partial stock public offering: low shock. The new share of partial share public offering in this period was 17.848 billion, a change of – 32.56% compared with 26.466 billion in the previous period. The absolute level fluctuated at a low level, and it was difficult to have an upward trend under the background of market correction.
Northward capital: the overall outflow was substantial, and the downstream was sold off. 1) The overall net inflow of funds going north in the current period was -53.013 billion yuan, a decrease of – 237914% compared with the net inflow of -2.138 billion yuan in the previous period. Since the beginning of 2022, the shock trend of cumulative net inflow of funds from northbound has been broken. As of March 20, the net inflow was – 30 billion yuan, which put great pressure on the capital side. 2) Industry capital flow: upstream raw materials continue to flow into coal, nonferrous metals flow out slightly, and basic chemicals and steel are under pressure; Midstream manufacturing, large outflow of power equipment and electronics; Downstream consumption, food, beverage and medicine suffered a significant net outflow again; Financial housing construction, non bank and bank outflow; Support services, net inflow of utilities and net outflow of computers.
Two financial funds: re transfer and outflow, and the middle reaches are under pressure. 1) After the balance of the two financial institutions hit the bottom and rebounded, it fell again under the influence of the market correction, but the overall proportion in the circulation market value of the whole a continued to rise from the previous low of 2.41% to 2.52%. The side reaction is that the outflow of the two financial institutions is not strong compared with other capital entities. The trading heat of Liangrong fell slightly, and the proportion of Liangrong trading volume in the total a trading volume fell from 7.32% in the previous period to 7.12%. The net purchase of Liangrong in the current period was – 44.2 billion yuan, while that in the previous period was positive 9.5 billion yuan. 2) Industry capital flow: the two financing funds are net outflow in most industries in the current period. The outflow of nonferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals in the upstream is strong. The net outflow of electronics, power equipment and national defense industry in the middle reaches exceeds 3 billion, and the outflow of medicine in the downstream exceeds 3 billion. The overall outflow of funds from financial housing construction is small, and there is a large outflow of computers in support services. In 2022ytd, only media and comprehensive net inflow are positive.
Stock ETF: the net subscription amount of stock ETF in this period reached 4.492 billion, a decrease of – 58.01% compared with 10.697 billion in the previous period, and the subscription strength fell.
Equity financing: steady rhythm. The overall equity financing in this period reached 35.5 billion yuan, a change of – 50% compared with 71 billion yuan in the previous period, which is still at a normal pace. According to the data disclosed as of March 20, the IPO scale is expected to be 19.5 billion yuan and the listing scale is expected to be 7.8 billion yuan in the next two weeks.
Industrial capital: the net reduction of electronic holdings is relatively large. 1) The net reduction of industrial capital in this period reached 8.8 billion yuan, a change of – 51% compared with 18 billion yuan in the previous period. The pace of reduction slowed down, or the pace of lifting the ban fell due to the superposition of market callback. 2) In this period, the net reduction of the electronic industry reached 4.1 billion yuan, which dragged down the whole midstream, but the increase of communication holdings was 1.758 billion yuan; The overall reduction of support services, upstream raw materials and downstream consumption was similar, and the banks in financial housing construction continued to increase their holdings.
Lifting of restrictions on sales: the lifting of restrictions on basic chemical industry is under great pressure. The market value of the lifting of the ban during this period is 110.2 billion yuan, a change of – 7.85% compared with 119.5 billion yuan in the previous period. At present, the lifting of the ban is relatively stable. The market value of the lifting of the ban in the next two weeks is expected to be 276.5 billion yuan, which is mainly concentrated in the basic chemical industry in the upstream, that is, the lifting of the ban of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) . In 2022ytd, the industries under great pressure to lift the ban are mainly power equipment and pharmaceutical and biological industries, both of which are more than 100 billion.
Southward capital: return to a steady inflow trend. The net inflow of southward capital in the current period was 33.575 billion yuan, an increase of 161.24% compared with 12.852 billion yuan in the previous period, and the inflow returned to the upward trend. The net inflow of 2022ytd has exceeded 80 billion yuan. Under the background of a large correction in the Hong Kong stock market, the allocation of funds continues to increase.
Risk tip: the liquidity of the stock market has changed beyond expectations, the ability of objective data to explain the change of stock price is limited, and the data update and calculation error.
