1. Overall configuration: the boots of raising interest rates are on the ground, and the outflow from the North slows down. In March, the interest rate hike boots fell to the ground, and the expectation of interest rate hike was generally raised. With regard to interest rate hikes, the Federal Reserve raised the target range of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points as scheduled in March. At the same time, combined with the latest dot matrix, 75% of officials expect to raise interest rates six times this year, and more than 40% of officials expect to raise interest rates seven times this year. The interest rate hike is expected to be generally higher than that of the interest rate meeting in December. With regard to the scale reduction, Powell hinted that the scale of the balance sheet will be reduced as soon as may this year, which is basically in line with the previous market expectations. At the same time, combined with the previous signals released by the Federal Reserve, the final scale of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is expected to be between us $5.5-6 trillion, and the process of scale reduction may continue until the middle of 2025.
The global epidemic rebounded again, and the Fed’s economic expectations adjusted significantly. Since March, the global epidemic has rebounded again. Last week, the number of new cases in a single day climbed again to 1.8 million cases / day, of which the rebound of the epidemic in South Korea contributed an important increment, and the number of new cases in a single day climbed nearly 400000 cases / day. At the same time, the Russia Ukraine incident is still fermenting, overseas inflation continues to rise, the Fed’s economic forecast is significantly adjusted, the economic growth rate is significantly reduced from 4% to 2.8%, and the annual PCE forecast is also increased from 2.6% to 4.3%.
The interest rate hike boots landed, the trading volume returned slightly, and the outflow from the North slowed down. The Fed raised interest rates and landed. The trading volume has returned slightly last week, and the overall outflow has slowed down. The cumulative net outflow in a single week is about 16.692 billion yuan. In terms of fund type splitting, the allocation disk continued to flow out, with a net outflow of about 21.625 billion yuan in a single week, but the trading disk has been turned into inflow, with a net inflow of about 5.267 billion yuan in a week. At the same time, the inflow of funds to the South continued to accelerate, with a cumulative net inflow of about 21.465 billion yuan last week. As of March 18, the cumulative net inflow of northbound trading and configuration has reached – 42.964 billion yuan and 19.097 billion yuan respectively since this year.
2. Industry allocation: public utilities and banks are among the top in terms of additional allocation. From the overall perspective, the net inflow of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+ 1.211 billion yuan), household appliances (+ 1.116 billion yuan) and mechanical equipment (+ 804 million yuan) ranks first, with the largest outflow of food and beverage (- 7.655 billion yuan), medicine and Biology (- 3.22 billion yuan) and computer (- 1.994 billion yuan);
From the perspective of fund type splitting: from the perspective of trading, non bank finance (+ 2.382 billion yuan) has the largest net inflow, while food and beverage (- 1.934 billion yuan) has the largest net outflow; From the perspective of allocation disk, the net inflow of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+ 996 million yuan) is the largest, while the net outflow of food and beverage (- 5.72 billion yuan) is the largest. 3. Allocation of individual shares: Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) increased its holdings and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) decreased its holdings. From an overall perspective, Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (+ 1.825 billion yuan), China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (+ 1.408 billion yuan) and Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (+ 664 million yuan) are among the top net inflow; While Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (- 5.269 billion yuan), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (- 1.962 billion yuan) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (- 1.469 billion yuan) mostly flowed out.
From the perspective of fund type splitting: from the perspective of trading disk, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (+ 1.411 billion yuan), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (+ 1.259 billion yuan) and Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (+ 776 million yuan) rank first in net inflow; RMB 1.9 billion and RMB 1.7 billion. From the perspective of configuration disk, Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (+ 1.049 billion yuan), Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (+ 674 million yuan) and Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) (+ 570 million yuan) are among the top net inflow; While Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (- 3.537 billion yuan), China stock market news (- 1.693 billion yuan) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (- 1.665 billion yuan) mostly flowed out.
Risk tips: 1. Increased volatility in overseas markets; 2. Exchange rate depreciation risk.
