Macro categories:
On March 21, Ukrainian President Zelensky once again released his willingness to accelerate negotiations. In addition, EU Member States finally failed to reach a consensus on the implementation of an energy embargo against Russia. At present, the situation in Ukraine and Russia still has a significant impact on commodities, and the price of crude oil has also aroused great concern of central banks of all countries. On the one hand, the situation in Ukraine and Russia is still repeated, the fourth round of negotiations between the two sides has not made significant progress, the Russian military action has not stopped, NATO countries have also continued to increase their arms assistance to Ukraine and continue to increase sanctions against Russia; On the other hand, the shortage of crude oil supply under the Ukrainian Russian conflict has not been made up for, the progress of Iran’s nuclear negotiations is slow, and OPEC countries are not willing to accelerate the production increase plan. Follow up needs to continue to track the progress of the event.
The tightening of global monetary policy accelerated. Last week, the Fed’s interest rate hike boots finally landed, and hinted that the next meeting would continue to raise interest rates, and may even start to shrink the table; However, from the perspective of asset prices, European stocks and US stocks have stabilized and rebounded, precious metals have turned from decline to rise, and US bond yields have first risen and then fell, which is consistent with our analysis of the rebound of risk assets after the implementation of interest rate increase. For asset allocation, after the interest rate hike is implemented and before the interest rate meeting in May, it is expected to usher in a rebound window period of risky assets, during which it is necessary to continue to track the changes of inflation expectations.
In terms of commodities, despite the bright economic data from January to February, there is still a certain deviation between the monthly data and high-frequency data, and the real estate and infrastructure with high correlation with commodities have not yet made significant efforts. In the first and middle of March, the real estate financing performance was weak, the issuance of real estate enterprise credit bonds and ABS was significantly depressed year-on-year, and the issuance of new special bonds for infrastructure was less than 150 billion in the middle of the first half of the year. The performance before and during the two sessions was unsatisfactory. At the micro level, According to our latest research, affected by the epidemic situation, snowfall, weak real estate and slow commencement of engineering projects, the downstream construction fell more year-on-year last week, and there was no significant increase month on month. In addition, the government is still increasing the policy of ensuring the supply and price stability of commodities. Under the game of strong expectation and weak reality, we still need to observe the signal of stabilizing and further improving domestic demand, and domestic demand industrial products remain neutral; Crude oil chain commodities need to be vigilant against the easing of the situation in Ukraine and Russia and the adjustment risks brought about by the conclusion of the US Iran nuclear negotiations Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) the bullish logic based on supply bottleneck and cost transmission is still relatively smooth. Since Russia announced a ban on the export of chemical fertilizer to “unfriendly” countries and regions on March 10, the North American chemical fertilizer price index reported US $124809/ton (March 18), nearly 40% higher than a month ago. Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) maintain the idea of bargain hunting and long under cost transmission; At the precious metals level, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time, superimposed high inflation in the United States, and maintained the view of bargain hunting and long.
Strategy (strength ranking): Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (soybean, soybean meal, etc.), bargain hunting and long of precious metals; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), and industrial products for domestic demand (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal);
Stock index futures: cautious.
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; The deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; The situation in Ukraine and Russia.
