After the implementation of the energy storage development plan, the post cycle is expected to continue
On March 21, 2022, the national energy administration and others officially released the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan. The content of this official document is consistent with the document draft disclosed by the association in mid February. The plan mainly includes (1) technical route, (2) industrial chain layout, (3) development objectives (supporting the new power system), (4) development path (Exploring the market-oriented system and mechanism of energy storage), (5) management system (policy guarantee), etc. Energy storage is the post cycle sector that we have recently recommended, and the growth rate of the industry is expected to accelerate upward (from the initial stage of commercialization to the stage of large-scale development). (1) From the perspective of core growth, focus on the links with high value (the cost of battery and energy storage inverter is relatively high), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) and other benefits; (2) From the perspective of certainty, the short-term profit of overseas home storage is good, and the medium and long-term focus on the quadratic curve of power side energy storage growth, Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) etc; (3) From the perspective of elasticity, companies with high proportion of energy storage revenue and good elasticity include Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) in the field of battery and Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) in the field of inverter.
This plan focuses on explaining (1) what types of energy storage systems we need; (2) What functions can the energy storage system provide; (3) How to improve the economy of energy storage system.
Technical development direction of energy storage system -- paying attention to new technology, safety technology and regulation technology
The market is most concerned about electrochemical energy storage, but it is clear in the scheme that the energy storage technology includes not only lithium-ion battery (sodium ion battery), but also new energy storage technologies such as liquid flow battery, compressed air and hydrogen (ammonia) energy storage. The policy encourages diversified technology development.
At the same time, there are two key requirements for the energy storage system: one is the whole process safety technology (fault diagnosis and early warning), and the other is the intelligent regulation technology (distributed energy storage collaborative aggregation) to solve the control problems of the power grid caused by the high proportion of new energy access.
The role of energy storage system - trans regional transmission, stable operation of power grid and reduction of energy consumption cost
On the power side, (1) promote the construction of system friendly new energy power stations (the energy storage system ensures the efficient consumption and utilization of new energy, improves the reliability and capacity support capacity of new energy); (2) Support the export of high proportion of renewable energy (new energy is sent and consumed across provinces and regions); (3) Gobi and other photovoltaic wind power development and consumption; (4) Offshore wind power development and consumption; (5) Conventional power regulation (peak shaving, frequency modulation, etc.).
On the power grid side, (1) ensure the safe and stable operation of the power grid (peak load regulation, frequency regulation, voltage regulation, emergency standby, slope climbing and black start); (2) Increase power supply in areas with weak power grid; (3) Postpone / replace power transmission and transformation investment, etc.
On the user side, (1) construction of distributed functional system (reducing energy consumption cost); (2) Improve the adjustment ability of users.
Improvement of business model of energy storage system -- dredging energy storage cost, exploring shared energy storage and other modes
On the one hand, it is necessary to reasonably dredge the cost of energy storage, including (1) the capacity price mechanism of energy storage power station on the grid side; (2) Establish a peak electricity price mechanism, widen the price difference between peak and valley, and guide the power market price to the user side.
On the other hand, we should explore new business models, including (1) shared energy storage mode (one station, multi-purpose, shared energy storage trading platform, and configure energy storage in the form of self built lease or purchase); (2) Energy storage polymerization application (give play to the role of load peak cutting and valley filling, and innovate the two-way interaction between source and load); (3) Innovate the investment and operation mode (encourage power generation enterprises and independent energy storage operators to jointly invest, and establish a coordinated operation and benefit sharing mechanism of multi energy complementary projects).
Risk warning: the development of new technologies exceeds expectations, the demand is lower than expectations, and the competition in the new energy market is intensified
