Industry perspective
The industry has passed the dark, the margin is better, and the value is highlighted in the bottom range; However, due to the serious differentiation of the industrial chain, it is suggested to optimize the subdivided track and select individual stocks; This week, it is suggested to focus on the layout opportunities of lithium batteries with good expected margin.
1) lithium battery enterprises may meet the best layout time point. This week Byd Company Limited(002594) , Tesla, Xiaopeng and other leading car companies announced price increases for multiple models in order to alleviate the cost pressure caused by the increase in battery prices under the condition of abundant orders. We believe that, on the one hand, the smooth price transmission of the industrial chain is conducive to alleviate or eliminate the negative expectations of the market that the price or cost transmission is not smooth. On the other hand, lithium power battery enterprises, which were previously suppressed by the rise of raw material costs and their performance and valuation, will usher in better marginal expectations.
Based on the above reasons, we judge that it may be the best time to lay out the power / energy storage lithium battery at present. The first-line power battery leaders Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) ; Second line power battery enterprises, such as Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , etc; Energy storage battery enterprises, such as Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) , Shenzhen Topband Co.Ltd(002139) , etc; Such as , 35. Investors are strongly recommended to focus on their corresponding opportunities. In terms of certainty, we recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) .
2) performance is the king and valuation is the anchor: in the short term, the sales of electric vehicles are strong from January to February, the production scheduling of 2022q1 industrial chain remains at a high level, and the leading enterprises still grow month on month compared with 2021q4, such as Ganfeng, Tianqi, Xingyuan, dangsheng, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Shanshan, etc. the business performance from January to February is eye-catching, and the high fundamentals have been verified. At the same time, the PE of multi link core enterprises in the industrial chain will be about 25-35 times in 2022, which is at the bottom of history, highlighting the investment value.
3) industrial chain differentiation: the best is the best: profit distribution will be the key point of the industrial chain game in 2022, which is reflected in the game in the secondary market. Unit profit, market share and technological marginal change are the key factors to evaluate enterprises α The core element of growth attribute. In general, we continue to be optimistic about high nickel ternary, diaphragm, power battery and some of them α High quality leading assets.
Subject recommendation
Under the general trend of global “double carbon” strong driving and supply resonance driving the continuous growth of demand, the outlook of the industrial chain will continue to rise. We maintain the “overweight” rating of the new energy vehicle industry. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the medium and long-term investment opportunities in the direction of energy storage and fuel cell for industrial extension.
Suggested layout main line: 1) core assets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , etc. 2) Elastic varieties: Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) etc. 3) Other suggestions are to focus on the leading points of the various sub industry segments: the 30 Huangshan Novel Co.Ltd(002014) \ , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , etc. 4) Key recommendations in the field of energy storage: Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) and Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) etc. it is recommended to pay attention to Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) . Suggestions for attention in the field of fuel cells: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) -u, Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , etc. Recommended combinations this week: Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , lithium battery (Ningde, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Yiwei and other related lithium battery enterprises), Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) .
First push this week: Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) .
Market resumption
1) industry level: this week, the new energy vehicle index and lithium battery index rose by 0.1% and 1% respectively, while the charging pile index, fuel cell index and energy storage index fell by 4%, 2% and 1% respectively. 2) Company level: reference to the lithium battery index. The company level: reference to the lithium battery index. The company level: reference to the lithium battery index. The top five of this week’s rise is the Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) ”’ Camel Group Co.Ltd(601311) (- 6%), Hunan Baili Engineering Sci & Tech Co.Ltd(603959) (- 6%), Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi’An(300487) (- 5%).
Industry dynamics
1) price of industrial chain: the quotation of lithium carbonate / lithium hydroxide this week is RMB 503000 / 490000 / ton, up 0.2% / 2% respectively, and the price continues to rise; The nickel / cobalt quotation was USD 37100 / RMB 571000, down – 23.1% / – 0.3%, and the nickel price tended to be rational; In terms of cathode materials, ncm622 / lithium iron phosphate was quoted at 385 / 168000 yuan / ton respectively on Wednesday, which remained stable; In terms of electrolyte, lithium fluorophosphate quoted 515000 yuan / ton on Saturday, down 6.4%, and electrolyte (lithium iron phosphate) quoted 105000 yuan / ton, down 4.8%; Diaphragm, 9 μ Wet base film / 14 μ The price of dry base membrane is 1.42/0.95 yuan / m2 respectively, which remains stable; In terms of negative electrode materials, the middle end and high-end artificial graphite were quoted at RMB 52000 / 72000 / ton respectively, which remained stable. 2) Key industry trends: relevant departments interviewed lithium salt enterprises to promote the reasonable and stable operation of prices.
Company dynamics
1) Byd Company Limited(002594) , Tesla, Chery new energy, Xiaopeng, Nezha, Zero run and Weima successively announced price increases to cope with the cost pressure caused by the rising price of raw materials;
2) Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) releases the annual performance express of 2021 and the main business data from January to February of 2022, Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) releases the annual report of 2021, Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) releases the annual performance express of 2021, Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) releases the main business data from January to February of 2022; 3) Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) plans to invest 8 billion yuan to build a 20gwh power battery production base.
Risk tips
Policy fluctuation risk; Demand is lower than expected; The product price is lower than expected; The performance of the recommended company is less than expected; Systemic risk
