Key investment points
Event: on March 22, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the 14th five year plan for modern energy system (hereinafter referred to as the plan).
Comments:
Further enhance the ability of independent energy supply. The plan proposes that by 2025, the annual production of standard coal will be more than 4.6 billion tons, the annual output of crude oil will rise and stabilize at the level of 200 million tons, the annual output of natural gas will reach more than 230 billion cubic meters, and the total installed capacity of power generation will be about 3 billion kilowatts. The output of standard coal and natural gas is increased, the supply of thermal power fuel is increased, and the cost side pressure is expected to be relieved, which is good for thermal power enterprises.
The low-carbon transformation of energy continued to advance. The plan proposes that by 2025, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will increase to 20%, and the proportion of non fossil energy power generation will reach 39%. We will vigorously develop renewable energy, and the proportion of non fossil energy consumption and power generation will continue to increase. It is expected that the installed capacity of Fengguang new energy power generation will continue to grow rapidly, and the prosperity of Fengguang new energy operation industry will be better. In addition, the plan emphasizes the development of hydropower according to local conditions and the active, safe and orderly development of nuclear power. By 2025, the installed capacity of conventional hydropower will reach 380 million KW and the installed capacity of nuclear power operation will reach 70 million KW.
Accelerate the construction of new power systems and significantly improve the efficiency of energy systems. 1) Promote the digital upgrading of power system and the iterative development of new power system construction, vigorously develop smart grid, UHV power transmission and transformation lines, actively promote the integrated development of source network, load and storage, and promote the evolution of power system to adapt to large-scale and high proportion of new energy; 2) Accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the distribution network and actively develop the smart microgrid focusing on the consumption of new energy, steadily promote flexible DC transmission, strengthen the coordinated peak shaving operation of the power grid at the sending and receiving ends, and improve the capacity of the whole network to absorb new energy; 3) Promote the flexible transformation of coal-fired power units and the construction of pumped storage power stations. By 2025, the cumulative scale of flexible transformation of coal-fired power units will exceed 200 million KW, the installed capacity of pumped storage will reach more than 62 million KW, and the installed capacity under construction will reach 60 million KW, so as to enhance the coordinated and optimized operation capacity of power supply; 4) Strengthen the large-scale application of new energy storage technology, broaden the application scenarios of energy storage, and explore new modes and new business forms such as energy storage aggregation and sharing; 5) Improve the power load elasticity, strengthen the construction of power demand side response capacity, guide large industrial loads to participate in the auxiliary service market and carry out virtual power plant demonstration. By 2025, the power demand side response capacity will reach 3% – 5% of the maximum load. The promotion of the construction of new power system will help to improve the consumption level of Fengguang new energy and benefit Fengguang new energy operators.
Efforts to save energy and reduce carbon have been further strengthened. Strictly control the intensity of energy consumption and promote the transformation from “dual control” of energy consumption to “dual control” of total carbon emission and intensity; Promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries such as industry, construction, transportation and data center, and improve the low-carbon electrification level of terminal energy consumption. By 2025, the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption will reach 30%, and the carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP will decrease by 18% in five years.
Investment suggestions: the release of the 14th five year plan for modern energy system has promoted the improvement of independent energy supply capacity and the development of renewable energy, which has significantly benefited the power industry. It is suggested to pay attention to: 1) China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Jiangsu New Energy Development Co.Ltd(603693) , Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Sunoren Solar Technology Co.Ltd(603105) ; 2) China Resources Power, Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) , Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) , Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , which actively transformed the development of new energy; 3) Nuclear power is expected to rise both in volume and price, and actively transform the development of scenery new energy China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) . To speed up the construction of new power system, it is suggested to pay attention to Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) of distribution network engineering construction and operation and maintenance and Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) of enterprise microgrid energy efficiency management. Energy conservation and carbon reduction efforts continue to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to China Southern Power Grid Energy Efficiency&Clean Energy Co.Ltd(003035) , who are engaged in one-stop comprehensive energy-saving services. Accelerating the development of new energy storage scale and gradually maturing the business model can promote the efficiency of the energy storage industry, and the whole industrial chain of new energy storage is expected to benefit significantly. It is suggested to pay attention to Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , Guangdong Shenling Environmental Systems Co.Ltd(301018) , Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co.Ltd(300499) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , Guoanda Co.Ltd(300902) , energy storage integrator Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co.Ltd(605286) and new energy storage operation target Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) .
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the project landing is less than expected, and the market competition is intensified.
