Carbon neutralization promotes energy transformation, and hydrogen energy may become a trillion blue ocean market. As a green energy with clean, low-carbon, high calorific value, diverse sources and flexible storage and transportation, hydrogen energy is known as the “ultimate energy” in the 21st century. The development of hydrogen energy industry is the only way for China to achieve the “double carbon” goal. The state has a positive attitude towards the development of hydrogen energy. Since 21 years, hydrogen energy related support policies have been issued frequently, and the industry is expected to usher in a high boom and growth under the catalysis of policies. We calculate the market scale of hydrogen energy supply side. By 2050, the market scale of China’s hydrogen energy supply side will reach 1302.7 billion yuan, the market scale of hydrogen production side will be considerable, and the development of hydrogen energy industry will usher in new opportunities.
There are great differences in hydrogen production paths. Hydrogen production from fossil energy and industrial by-product hydrogen will become the main source of hydrogen supply in China in the short and medium term. According to the statistics of China hydrogen energy alliance and petroleum and Chemical Planning Institute, China’s hydrogen production in 2019 was about 33.42 million tons, making it the world’s largest hydrogen producer. Hydrogen production from coal is the primary way of hydrogen production, accounting for about 64%; Followed by industrial by-product hydrogen and natural gas hydrogen production, accounting for 21% and 14% respectively. 1) At present, the cost of hydrogen production from coal in China is lower than that from natural gas, but the cost of hydrogen production from natural gas has more room to decline. In the future, CCUs cost superposition may narrow the cost gap between natural gas hydrogen production and coal hydrogen production. CCUs technology is expected to continue to reduce costs, and the cost of natural gas hydrogen production and coal hydrogen production routes superimposed with CCUs technology may continue to decline. 2) The industrial by-product hydrogen production technology is mature and low-cost. Among them, the by-product hydrogen production from propane dehydrogenation and ethane cracking has high purity and great potential to release hydrogen supply. It can be used as an important hydrogen source in the early stage of hydrogen energy development in China. 3) According to the prediction of China hydrogen energy alliance, it is expected that China’s hydrogen production from renewable energy will increase to 100 million tons by 2060, accounting for 77% of the total annual hydrogen demand in 2060. As the cost of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic renewable energy power generation decreases, the development of hydrogen production from renewable energy will usher in a breakthrough. According to the prediction of China hydrogen energy alliance, in 2030, the cost of hydrogen production from renewable energy electrolytic water will be as low as 15 yuan / kg, which has the conditions to compete with the coal hydrogen production of supporting CCUs, and the competitiveness of hydrogen production from electrolytic water will be prominent in the future.
Hydrogen energy is widely used, and fuel cell vehicles are the main increment of hydrogen energy demand in the short and medium term. According to the prediction of China hydrogen energy alliance, under the “carbon neutralization” scenario in 2060, China’s annual demand for hydrogen will increase to about 130 million tons. As a key link in the development and utilization of hydrogen energy, China’s hydrogen stations have entered a stage of rapid development and are expected to reach a market scale of 100 billion by 2050. Large scale and equipment localization can promote the cost reduction of hydrogen stations. At present, the global hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is developing rapidly, and China occupies a dominant position in the global fuel cell bus and commercial vehicle segment market. In the future, with the maturity of fuel cell system technology and the decline of cost, the scale of hydrogen fuel cell heavy truck and passenger vehicle is expected to expand rapidly, which can give play to the advantages of hydrogen volatile fuel cell in the field of long-distance and heavy load.
Investment suggestion: the hydrogen energy industry chain involves many links and application scenarios, has broad development space, and is expected to become a trillion market in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to the layout of coal hydrogen production enterprises: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) ; It is suggested to focus on the layout of industrial by-product hydrogen Enterprises: Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , satellite chemistry, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) , Jiangxi Jovo Energy Co.Ltd(605090) , China Xuyang group; It is suggested to pay attention to the layout of hydrogen production enterprises from electrolytic water: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ; It is suggested to pay attention to the layout of hydrogenation stations and hydrogenation unit enterprises: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , satellite chemistry, Zhenhai Petrochemical Engineering Co.Ltd(603637) , Sinopec Shandong Taishan Pectroleum Co.Ltd(000554) .
Risk analysis: the cost of renewable energy power generation fell less than expected; The implementation of the policy is less than expected; Key technological breakthroughs were less than expected.
