Core view
Event: on March 22, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the “14th five year plan” for modern energy system. The plan points out that we should build a modern energy system to ensure national energy security, and pay special attention to and support the fields of wind power, photovoltaic, energy storage, hydrogen energy and new energy vehicles. In terms of quantitative indicators, the plan requires that by 2025, China’s annual comprehensive energy production capacity will reach more than 4.6 billion tons of standard coal; The proportion of non fossil energy consumption increased to about 20%; Energy consumption per unit of GDP has decreased by 13.5% in five years.
Accelerate the development of wind power and photovoltaic to ensure the sustained high prosperity of the industry: the plan attaches great importance to wind power and photovoltaic power generation, focusing on distributed photovoltaic, decentralized wind power, desert Gobi scenery base and far-reaching sea wind power base. With the gradual release of upstream silicon capacity in the photovoltaic industry, China is expected to achieve 90gw of installed capacity in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 64%, and the subsequent high boom is expected to continue. The high price and large volume of silicon materials in the upstream link and the profit margin of the downstream integration link are repaired. In terms of wind power, the quotation of wind turbine continues to decline with the large-scale, and it is expected to supplement the price with quantity under the background of land wind parity; After the sea breeze rush loading, the boom is still high, and Haihua is far-reaching, which is beneficial to the link of submarine cable, pipe pile and tower with marginal increase of value.
Accelerate the large-scale utilization of new energy storage: the plan requires to vigorously develop the development of energy storage on the power supply side, power grid side and power consumption side, and promote the application of diversified energy storage technologies. Under the background of unstable output and large increase in renewable energy penetration, the development of energy storage can greatly improve the stability of power grid and reduce the energy consumption cost on the user side. Under the background that pumped energy storage is limited by natural resources, some of the newly-built Guangfeng projects began to be allocated and stored compulsorily, and electrochemical energy storage is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 58% during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
The sales volume of new energy vehicles accounts for 20%: the plan points out to improve the low-carbon and electrification level of terminal energy consumption, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles will account for 20% in 2025. The price of upstream resources is high. Once the subsequent price goes down, the profit of lithium battery in the middle reaches will be repaired, and the cost will be reduced to help the sales volume of new energy vehicles.
Recommended target: photovoltaic diamond wire: Henan Hengxing Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002132) ( Henan Hengxing Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002132) . SZ); Offshore wind power submarine cable: Baosheng Science And Technology Innovation Co.Ltd(600973) ( Baosheng Science And Technology Innovation Co.Ltd(600973) . SH), Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) ( Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) . SH); Integration of electric cells in energy storage system: Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co.Ltd(000049) ( Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co.Ltd(000049) . SZ); Lithium battery: Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) ( Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) . SZ); Semiconductor of new energy vehicle: Roshow Technoiogy Co.Ltd(002617) ( Roshow Technoiogy Co.Ltd(002617) . SZ); Hydrogen energy: Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) ( Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) . SZ).
Risk warning: the installed capacity of wind power is less than expected; The PV installed capacity is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies.
