Key investment points:
During the coordinated promotion period of low-carbon energy transformation and guaranteed supply, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the “14th five year plan” for modern energy system: the plan stressed the importance of renewable energy and pointed out that renewable energy has provided about 60% of the world’s new power generation in recent five years. Under the goal of carbon neutrality, the low-carbon transformation of the global energy structure is accelerating. The global energy supply and demand landscape is also facing in-depth adjustment, further showing the trend that the consumption center of gravity shifts eastward and the production center of gravity shifts westward. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the path of energy low-carbon transformation has entered an important window period. To reach the peak of carbon by 2030, we must jointly promote the transformation of low-carbon energy and the guarantee of supply. On the other hand, China’s energy security has entered the stage of consolidating its foundation, promoting its advantages, making up for its weaknesses and strengthening its strengths and weaknesses. The “14th five year plan for modern energy system” recently issued by the national development and Reform Commission and the national energy administration puts forward new goals and requirements for the construction of modern energy system.
The plan points out that for energy security, traditional oil and gas will play a key role as ballast: by 2025, China’s annual comprehensive energy production capacity will reach more than 4.6 billion tons of standard coal (compared with 4.33 billion tons of standard coal in 2021 + 6.2%), and the annual output of crude oil will rise and stabilize at the level of 200 million tons (199 million tons in 2021), The annual output of natural gas reaches more than 230 billion cubic meters (an increase of + 12% over the annual output of 205.3 billion cubic meters in 2021). In order to achieve the objectives of the 14th five year plan, on the one hand, the state will actively expand the exploration and development of unconventional resources and accelerate the development of shale oil, shale gas and coalbed methane. On the other hand, we should strengthen risk exploration in the central and western regions and sea areas, and strengthen fine exploration in the old areas of the East. We will accelerate the promotion of such landmark projects as “gas Daqing” in Sichuan Basin, “deep oil and gas Daqing” in Tarim Basin, and 6 Sichuan Jinshi Technology Co.Ltd(002951) 00 million ton “oil and gas super basin”.
Strengthen the construction of gas storage facilities, implement tax incentives for shale oil and tight gas, and clarify the key reform tasks in the oil and gas field: during the 14th Five Year Plan period, we will actively improve the natural gas reserve and regulation capacity, and comprehensively promote the construction of underground gas storage, liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal and other gas storage facilities. By 2025, the national gas storage capacity of intensive layout will reach 55 billion ~ 60 billion cubic meters, accounting for about 13% of natural gas consumption. On the other hand, we will continue to implement relevant preferential tax policies and increase support for the development and utilization of low-grade and difficult to use oil and gas reserves, tight oil and gas fields and shale oil. In addition, the state will continue to liberalize the upstream exploration and mining market, fully implement the competitive transfer of mining rights, and promote the collection and utilization of oil and gas geological data. Participate in the competition as an independent market subject by promoting the professional reorganization of engineering technology, engineering construction and equipment manufacturing business.
Investment suggestion: during the 14th five year plan, green and low-carbon and energy security are both emphasized, and the oil service industry will play the role of energy ballast. Key recommendation [ Nanjing Develop Advanced Manufacturing Co.Ltd(688377) ]: the world’s leading deep-sea forging enterprise benefits from the high prosperity of global deep-sea development and the expansion of the company’s own supply chain, as well as the growth of fracturing equipment in China. Recommendation [ Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) ]: the global leader in fracturing equipment, China’s energy supply + global competitiveness, and a broad market for new fracturing equipment. Recommendation [ China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) ]: oilfield technical services are highly profitable, and drilling platforms reflect performance flexibility under high oil prices. In addition, pay attention to [ Bomesc Offshore Engineering Company Limited(603727) ], [ Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) ], etc.
Risk tip: the international oil price fluctuates sharply, the capital expenditure of three barrels of oil is less than expected, and the repeated epidemic makes the demand recovery less than expected
