Sports track: it fluctuates in the short term and still grows rapidly in the medium and long term. 1) Short term: according to our tracking, the flow of Chinese sports brands increased rapidly from January to February. It is expected that there will be some pressure on the growth rate with the arrival of a high base from March to April. 2) Medium and long term: China's sports shoes and clothing market is still in the stage of rapid growth. According to the data of Anta Sports announcement, the scale of China's sports shoes and clothing market CAGR reached 13% from 2015 to 2019, and it is expected to maintain double-digit growth in the future. Among them, the differentiation of sports needs of diversified categories such as women and children, and the sudden rise of subdivided sports such as ice and snow, yoga and running are expected to bring new investment opportunities.
Brands: the strength of domestic brand products is strengthened, and the market share is expected to increase. With the rise of national brand awareness, we believe that the national brand has the opportunity to improve its market share, and the focus of its core competitiveness comes from the advancement of product power. 1) Li Ning: excellent brand and product strength. In 2021, the revenue / performance increased by 56% / 136%, and the profit quality improved beyond expectations. According to our tracking, the flow from January to February increased by 30% +. 2) Anta Sports: the group's multi brand operation is stable, with a year-on-year increase of 39% / 50% in revenue / performance in 2021. Anta Group's annual revenue growth is expected to be about 20% from January to February, and the overall growth rate of Anta Group is expected to be about 20%. 3) Tebu International: the awareness of the main brand is improved, and the water performance is resilient. In 2021, the revenue / performance will increase by 23% / 77%. We expect the water to grow rapidly in 2022q1.
Manufacturer: industry resources are concentrated to the head, and the strong are stronger to stabilize the supply chain. Sports manufacturers benefit from the dual advantages of track growth and pattern optimization: ① the rapid growth of medium and long-term sports track scale is expected to drive the growth of upstream order demand. ② It has become an industry trend for brand customers to streamline their suppliers. The epidemic has further accelerated the optimization of the competition pattern, and the leader has benefited from stabilizing the supply chain. 1) Shenzhou International: due to external factors, the performance has declined, with the performance (RMB 3.1-3.5 billion) falling by 30% in 2021, but the medium and long-term supply chain competitiveness is still improving. With the marginal improvement of the current environment, we expect the performance to grow rapidly in 2022. 2) Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) : the business scale is in the stage of rapid growth. The performance will increase by 47% in 2021. The customer demand is good. The company's supply chain is stable and the capacity continues to increase. The performance is expected to maintain rapid growth.
Investment advice. In the recent two weeks, the trend of the sector has been affected by the fluctuation of the market transaction level. At present, we restate our view: we are firmly optimistic about high growth sports tracks in the medium and long term, focusing on domestic brands with improved strength and head manufacturers with stable supply chain. We recommend [Li Ning, Anta sports, Tebu international and Shenzhou International]. The current price corresponds to 30 / 25 / 22 / 24 times of PE in 22 years, pay attention to Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , 26 times of PE in 22 years and 12 times of PE in 22 years.
Risk warning: the impact of covid-19 epidemic exceeded expectations; Low end consumption risk; The store expansion of each company is less than expected; The development of new business is not smooth, etc.
