Key investment points:
Review of the secondary market: this week (March 14-march 18, 2022), the home appliance industry fell by 1.83%, ranking 17th in the primary industry classification of CITIC. Among the segments and related sectors of household appliances, except for the small household appliances sector, which rose by 0.2%, other sectors fell to varying degrees. Among them, the kitchen electricity sector fell by 1.01%, about 0.8 percentage points higher than the overall level of the household appliance industry; The black spot and white electricity sectors fell by 1.84% and 2.02% respectively, both narrowed compared with the previous week. In terms of individual stocks, among the 84 A-share listed companies in the household appliance industry this week, 18 rose, 3 were flat and 63 fell.
Retail market performance: in 2022w11 (3.7-3.13), the sales of China’s dual end market of all kinds of household appliances were – 8.32% (online) and – 29.1% (offline) respectively year-on-year, and the online growth rate was further improved. From the perspective of focusing on the sales of household appliances, the year-on-year growth rate of sales volume in the online market of some categories has stabilized and rebounded, but the increase of average price has narrowed. Among them, the sales volume and average price in the online market of air conditioner have increased by 6.62% and 100 yuan / set respectively year-on-year; The sales volume and average price of washing machines increased by 6.27% and 118 yuan / set respectively year-on-year. Considering the recent repeated outbreaks in China, the market sales of domestic wires may continue to improve in the short term.
Data tracking of raw materials and marine real estate: LME copper prices rose again after a short fall this week, while LME aluminum prices remained high and volatile. The closing price of aluminum was USD 10249 / ton and that of copper was USD 3380 / ton as of March 18, respectively; Rebar prices continued to rise, gradually approaching 5000 yuan / ton. As of the closing on March 18, the settlement price of shift rebar was reported at 4943 yuan / ton; In terms of maritime transportation, CCFI of China’s major foreign routes further decreased, of which CCFI of East-West Africa and West US routes decreased by 3.64% and 3.82% respectively month on month, with a relatively significant decline. Compared with the stable performance of commercial housing transactions in the third tier cities, there are obvious fluctuations in the first and second tier cities. According to statistics, from March 14 to March 20, 2022, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities in the first and second tier of China increased by 14.6% and – 16.2% respectively month on month.
Views and investment suggestions: at the symposium held by the Ministry of industry and information technology recently, relevant principals commented on the continuous expansion of consumption of large industrial products such as new energy vehicles and smart appliances, among which “household appliance consumption” was highlighted as an important part of consumption recovery. According to statistical data, China’s consumption expenditure boosted economic growth by 5.3 percentage points in 2021, and its contribution rate to economic growth reached 65.4%. Therefore, it can be seen that consumption has become the first driving force of economic growth. Considering the current policy side, the implementation of a series of policies and measures such as reducing taxes and fees and promoting consumption of household appliances will promote the recovery of the demand of household appliances market; As for the supply side, under the active promotion of industrial structure upgrading by household appliance enterprises, the product quality and intelligent level are continuously improved, and the household appliance industry may gradually usher in the recovery stage. Therefore, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) ( Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) . SZ), Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ( Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) . SH), Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) ( Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) . SZ) with continuous optimization of product structure and steady increase of medium and high-end market share, as well as the related targets of high revenue and profit increase in the disclosure of recent performance express.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; The market demand is less than expected; Industry competition pattern intensifies; Risk of continuous fluctuations in raw material prices, shipping costs and exchange rates.
