Event: on March 22, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the modern energy system plan for the 14th Five Year Plan period, which put forward a detailed plan for energy development during the 14th Five Year Plan period, requiring efforts to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy production and consumption, and accelerate the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system.
Accelerate the transformation of energy structure and actively promote the development of green electricity. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the consumption of renewable energy is expected to increase significantly. The plan requires that the proportion of non fossil energy consumption be increased to about 20% and the proportion of non fossil energy power generation to about 39% by 2025. As the main development direction, wind power photovoltaic will comprehensively promote the large-scale development of wind power and photovoltaic, orderly promote the centralized development of scenery, accelerate the construction of large-scale scenery base projects focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas, actively promote the construction of multi-energy complementary clean energy bases in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, Xinjiang and northern Hebei, encourage the construction of offshore wind power bases and promote the layout of sea wind to deep-water areas. At the same time, in order to solve the problem of scenery consumption, the plan focuses on fully tapping the peak shaving potential of power supply, comprehensively implementing the flexible transformation of coal motor units, and striving to achieve a scale of more than 200 million KW by 2025, with an installed capacity of pumped storage of more than 62gw. Driven by the policy, the installed capacity of new energy is expected to continue to be put into operation at a high speed during the 14th Five Year Plan period, accelerate the transformation of energy structure, and recommend the target [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ] [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ] with high construction in progress, large production scale, growth and certainty.
Actively and orderly promote the development of nuclear power and accelerate the commissioning of the project: as the only base load power source that is expected to partially replace thermal power, the commissioning progress of nuclear power is expected to accelerate under the background of “double carbon”. The plan focuses on “actively, safely and orderly develop nuclear power”, actively and orderly promote the construction of coastal nuclear power projects on the premise of ensuring security, and carry out demonstration of comprehensive utilization of nuclear power, It is required that the installed capacity of nuclear power operation will reach about 70gw by 2025, transmitting a positive signal of accelerating the orderly development of nuclear power. According to the disclosure of China electricity Union, by the end of 2021, the China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) installed capacity has reached 53.3gw, and it is expected to add more than 4gw annually from 2022 to 2025. Nuclear power has been put into operation steadily, with the focus on nuclear power + new energy dual wheel drive. There is room for both volume and price to rise [ China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ].
Continue to enhance the supply of natural gas source, and the demand is expected to continue to increase under the transformation of energy structure: the plan points out that the energy supply needs to be further improved, and the annual output of natural gas is required to reach 230 billion cubic meters by 2025. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China’s annual natural gas production in 2021 was 205.26 billion cubic meters, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year. There is still room for growth during the 14th Five Year Plan period. With the steady increase of gas supply, China’s natural gas price is expected to remain stable, which is good for downstream urban fuel enterprises. In the context of “double carbon”, natural gas, as the cleanest fossil energy, is an important choice in the transition stage to non fossil energy. At present, the proportion of natural gas use in China is still low, and the demand for natural gas will further increase in the process of energy structure transformation. In the context of the improvement of natural gas supply and demand, enterprises that layout the whole industrial chain have more development potential. Asset injection is recommended to build the whole industrial chain of natural gas and actively layout the undervalued target of comprehensive energy [ Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) ].
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the project production progress is less than expected, the risk of continuous rise in coal price and natural gas price.
