Key investment points
Event: on March 23, the national development and Reform Commission published the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035). The plan defines the objectives of each stage of the development of hydrogen energy industry: by 2025, basically master the core technology and manufacturing process, the number of fuel cell vehicles will reach 50000, deploy and build a number of hydrogen refueling stations, the hydrogen production capacity of renewable energy will reach 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 tons / year, and the carbon dioxide emission will be reduced by 1-2 million tons / year. By 2030, a relatively complete technological innovation system for hydrogen energy industry and a clean energy hydrogen production and supply system will be formed. By 2035, a diversified application ecology of hydrogen energy will be formed, and the proportion of hydrogen production from renewable energy in terminal energy consumption will increase significantly.
The plan has deployed four key demonstration tasks:
First, orderly promote the demonstration application in the field of transportation. Focus on promoting the application of hydrogen fuel cells in buses, trucks and other heavy vehicles, and explore the application of hydrogen fuel cells in ships / aircraft and other fields.
Second, actively carry out demonstration applications in the field of energy storage. Give full play to the advantages of hydrogen energy long-term and large-capacity energy storage, and explore and cultivate a new integrated application mode of “wind power hydropower + hydrogen energy storage”. Study and explore the supporting electricity price policy for hydrogen production from renewable energy power generation, and improve the energy storage price mechanism covering hydrogen energy storage.
Third, rational distribution of multiple applications in the field of power generation. Layout hydrogen fuel cell distributed cogeneration facilities according to local conditions, and carry out hydrogen electricity integration microgrid demonstration. Encourage the demonstration application of hydrogen fuel cell communication base station / standby power supply, and gradually introduce the application of hydrogen fuel cell in finance, hospitals, schools, industrial and mining enterprises and other fields.
Fourth, gradually explore alternative applications in the industrial field. Explore the demonstration of hydrogen production from renewable energy in synthetic ammonia, methanol, refining, coal to oil and gas and other industries / alternative fossil energy, and promote the low-carbon and green development of high energy consuming industries.
In addition, the plan also supports qualified hydrogen energy enterprises to register for listing and financing on the science and innovation board and the gem.
Comments:
1. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle:
The production and sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is expected to grow rapidly: in terms of sales volume, the sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China was only 1586 in 2021, and 16000 in major countries in the world. In terms of ownership, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China was about 9000 in 2021, and the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in major countries in the world was about 49000. Therefore, according to the plan, by 2025, China will have 50000 fuel cell vehicles, which is more than five times that of 2021. It is deduced that China will add more than 40000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2022 to 2025, and the annualized compound growth rate of China’s new hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2021 to 2025 will reach more than 80%.
China promotes the development of hydrogen fuel cell in the form of demonstration city clusters: in August 2021, the Ministry of Finance and other four departments issued the notice on starting the demonstration and application of fuel cell vehicles, announcing that Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanghai and Guangdong have become China’s three major hydrogen fuel cell vehicle demonstration city clusters. The State adopts the method of “replacing subsidies with awards” and gives awards according to the completion of the mission objectives of the demonstration group. In January 2022, the second batch of national fuel cell vehicle demonstration and application urban agglomeration was announced to be established, and Henan urban agglomeration and Hebei Urban Agglomeration were approved. Therefore, the national “3 + 2” fuel cell vehicle demonstration pattern has been formed. We believe that the establishment of urban agglomeration can produce large-scale effect, so as to greatly reduce the transportation cost and filling cost of hydrogen. The transportation cost of hydrogen increases linearly with the increase of transportation distance. The filling cost of hydrogen decreases exponentially with the increase of hydrogenation amount.
The high energy density and low resource end restriction of hydrogen fuel cell are its advantages over lithium battery: compared with lithium battery driven new energy vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell has higher energy density than lithium battery, which is more suitable for long-distance and heavy-duty vehicles. Moreover, the production of hydrogen is less limited by the resource side. Lithium batteries are limited by the most upstream lithium resources and mining approval. The price of lithium carbonate raw materials has soared from about 60000 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2021 to more than 500000 yuan / ton now, resulting in an increase in the cost of new energy vehicles. In contrast, there are many hydrogen production methods, including hydrogen production from fossil fuels (gray hydrogen), hydrogen production from industrial by-products (blue hydrogen) and the most environmentally friendly hydrogen production from electrolytic water (green hydrogen), which are less limited by the resource side. Of course, hydrogen fuel cells also have their own development bottlenecks. In the hydrogenation process, the core equipment of China’s hydrogenation station (compressor, dispenser, hydrogen storage bottle, etc.) depends on imports, and the proton exchange membrane in fuel cell stack also depends on imports. Therefore, the cost reduction brought by the breakthrough of domestic technology is the key to the vigorous promotion of fuel cells in the future. In terms of technology, the technology of lithium battery is much more mature, so the degree of commercialization is far ahead of hydrogen fuel cell.
2. Hydrogen energy storage:
“Converting hydrogen into photovoltaic energy storage tank” refers to the integration of wind power and electrolysis to generate electricity. When electricity is needed, hydrogen is led to the hydrogen fuel cell, and the electrochemical reaction of hydrogen and oxygen to generate water is used to convert chemical energy into electrical energy. Or mix hydrogen into natural gas pipeline to form hydrogen rich natural gas, and use gas turbine to convert hydrogen rich natural gas into electricity.
Photovoltaic, wind power and other renewable energy power generation has the characteristics of unstable power generation, so it is usually necessary to be equipped with energy storage devices. Compared with lithium battery energy storage, hydrogen energy storage has advantages in energy density and storage time, especially suitable for large-scale energy storage.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the current hydrogen fuel cell is still in the early stage of policy promotion, similar to the development stage of early lithium batteries such as 2014. The speed of its development depends on the breakthrough of core technology and the decline of cost. It is suggested to pay attention to: Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) .
Risk tip: the production and sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are less than expected; The development of core technology is less than expected.
