Event:
On March 23, the national development and Reform Commission issued the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035).
Key investment points:
Clarify the strategic position of hydrogen energy production capacity and open up the medium and long-term development space of hydrogen energy
The medium and long-term development plan of hydrogen energy defines the strategic positioning of the development of hydrogen energy industry: first, hydrogen energy is clearly positioned as an important part of the future national energy system, and the energy attribute is qualitative; Secondly, hydrogen energy is an important carrier to realize green and low-carbon transformation of energy consumption terminal, and decarbonization has become one of the important driving forces for the development of hydrogen energy industry; Finally, as a strategic emerging industry, hydrogen energy will be developed in the future.
1) by 2025, the policy, technology and application ends will be improved and improved respectively, the number of fuel cell vehicles will be about 50000, and a number of hydrogenation stations will be deployed and constructed. Hydrogen production from renewable energy reaches 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 tons / year;
2) by 2030, a relatively complete hydrogen energy industry system will be formed, the industrial layout will be reasonable and orderly, and hydrogen production from renewable energy will be widely used, which will strongly support the realization of the carbon peak goal;
3) by 2035, form a hydrogen energy industry system and build a diversified hydrogen energy application ecology covering transportation, energy storage, industry and other fields. The proportion of hydrogen production from renewable energy in terminal energy consumption has increased significantly.
Upstream hydrogen production end: parallel development of by-product hydrogen and green electric hydrogen
In the current hydrogen production structure of China’s hydrogen energy industry, fossil fuel hydrogen / industrial by-product hydrogen / electrolytic water hydrogen account for 78% / 21% / less than 1% respectively. According to the plan, industrial by-product hydrogen (including coking, chlor alkali and propane dehydrogenation) will be preferentially utilized and encouraged to be consumed nearby. In the initial stage of hydrogen energy development, it will become the main hydrogen source for the application of downstream hydrogen fuel cells. In the medium and long term, under the goal of carbon neutralization, hydrogen production from renewable energy will be vigorously developed, especially in areas rich in wind, solar and hydropower resources. Renewable hydrogen will be used in chemical industry, transportation, steel and other fields.
Midstream storage and transportation end: high pressure gaseous hydrogen comes first, followed by low temperature liquid hydrogen and pipeline hydrogen
At the initial stage of the development of China’s hydrogen energy industry, the consumption and transportation radius of hydrogen other than raw hydrogen are relatively small, and the hydrogen energy storage and transportation is basically dominated by high-pressure gaseous hydrogen. In the future, high-pressure gaseous hydrogen will still be the mainstream hydrogen storage and transportation mode by virtue of its cost-effective advantages. According to the plan, the commercialization level of high-pressure gaseous storage and transportation will be greatly improved; When the hydrogen energy market develops to the medium and long term, the demand radius of hydrogen will gradually increase, and high-density hydrogen storage and transportation routes such as low-temperature liquid hydrogen and pipeline hydrogen will gradually be industrialized.
Downstream application end: the direction of hydrogen fuel heavy truck is clarified again in the transportation field, and hydrogen energy storage, hydrogen metallurgy and green hydrogen chemical industry are actively promoted
As a green secondary energy connecting renewable energy and terminal application scenarios, green hydrogen can be used not only in the fields of transportation and energy storage as green energy, but also in metallurgy, chemical industry and other fields as green raw materials. In the field of transportation, in the policy of “replacing subsidies with awards” issued by five ministries and commissions in September 2020, the government has proposed to focus on the development of medium and heavy vehicles for the first time, and the subsidies are also inclined to this model. The plan still focuses on promoting medium and heavy hydrogen energy vehicles and forms a complementary development model with lithium battery pure electric vehicles. In the field of energy storage, hydrogen energy can be used as a high-capacity and long-term energy storage carrier for renewable energy consumption and power grid peak shaving. In the field of metallurgy, hydrogen energy can be used as a green reducing agent to replace coke and other high carbon reducing substances. In the field of chemical industry, green hydrogen can promote the transformation of synthetic ammonia, methanol, refining, coal to oil and gas and other industries from high-carbon process to low-carbon process.
Investment advice
Driven by the goal of “30-60 double carbon”, hydrogen energy, as a green secondary energy connecting renewable energy and terminal application scenarios, will be applied on a large scale in the fields of transportation, energy storage, metallurgy, chemical industry and so on. The implementation of the development plan means that the medium and long-term development space of hydrogen energy is opened, and the hydrogen energy industry will truly enter the process of “1” to “10”. We suggest that we focus on companies that are actively laying out and have a first mover advantage in every aspect of the hydrogen energy industry chain, including companies that have a first mover advantage in every aspect of the hydrogen energy industry chain, including the Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Changchun Zhiyuan New Energy Equipment Co.Ltd(300985) , Zhangjiagang Furui Special Equipment Co.Ltd(300228) etc.
Risk tips
Key technology breakthroughs are less than expected, policy implementation is less than expected, and disruptive alternative technologies appear
