\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 985 Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) )
Event: on March 22, 2022, the company released the performance express of 2021. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 64.961 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.27%; The total profit was 6.043 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.87%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 4.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.82%.
The performance in the fourth quarter of 2021 increased slightly month on month. According to the calculation of the announcement, in the fourth quarter, the company realized a net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company of 1.137 billion yuan, a month on month increase of 1.07% and a year-on-year increase of 63.6%.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company’s coal volume and price rose simultaneously. The company will complete coal production in 2021. 225755 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.13%, and the sales volume of commercial coal was 197588 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.94%. In a single quarter, the company produced 6.259 million tons of raw coal in the fourth quarter of 2021, an increase of 10.9% year-on-year and 23.7% month on month; 4.9391 million tons of commercial coal were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 3% and a month on month decrease of 0.5%. According to wind data, the average price of Huaibei coking clean coal in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 2200 yuan / ton, up 34% from 1642 yuan / ton in the third quarter.
In terms of chemicals, coke output was flat year-on-year, while methanol output fell year-on-year. In 2021, the company produced 4.0964 million tons of coke, a year-on-year decrease of 0.66%, and sold 4.0758 million tons of coke. A year-on-year decrease of 1.3%. The sales volume of coke in the fourth quarter decreased by 1.04 million tons and 1.04 million tons respectively, compared with that in the fourth quarter. In 2021, the company produced 342700 tons of methanol, a year-on-year decrease of 9.86%, and sold 344400 tons of methanol, a year-on-year decrease of 10.27%. In a single quarter, the methanol production and sales volume of the company in the fourth quarter of 2021 were 7.8781200 tons respectively, with month on month changes of – 0.9% and 4.0%.
The company’s resources continue to land, and the growth potential is worry free. According to the announcement of the company on February 19, 2022, Chengda mining, a subsidiary of the company, received the reply of the national development and Reform Commission on the approval of taohutu coal mine project in narinhe mining area, Inner Mongolia, and plans to build an 8 million T / a mine, which means that the equity production capacity of the company is expected to increase by 4.19 million T / a (the company holds 51% equity of Chengda mining). According to the company’s announcement on September 17, 2021, the company’s 3 million T / a Xinhu coal mine was officially put into operation, and the company’s capacity in property rights and interests increased by about 2.04 million T / A. It is expected that the mine can continue to contribute to the output increment in 2022. During the “14th five year plan” period, the company’s Zhuzhuang Coal Mine (with a production capacity of 1.6 million tons / year) may be shut down, but the construction of taohutu project is expected to further increase the potential of the company’s main coal industry.
Investment suggestion: adjust the profit forecast according to the performance express. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.78 billion yuan, 6.522 billion yuan and 7.04 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 1.93/2.63/2.84 respectively, and PE of the share price on March 22, 2022 of 8 times, 6 times and 5 times respectively. The company has the growth ability of relatively scarce boards at present, and is expected to obtain higher valuation and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the coal price fell more than expected, the profit of newly put into production capacity was less than expected, the construction progress of newly approved capacity was slower than expected, and there was uncertainty in the project of Chemical Research Institute.
