\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 886 Jangho Group Co.Ltd(601886) )
The company issued 21fy annual report, with revenue of 20.8 billion in the reporting period, yoy + 15%, compared with 19fy CAGR + 5%; Among them, 21q4 revenue is 6.59 billion yuan, yoy + 8%, compared with 19fy CAGR + 1%; The income is generally in line with expectations, and the compound growth rate is slightly lower. It should be considered that the epidemic still has a certain impact, and the company is more cautious in undertaking / promoting commercial residential decoration projects under real estate risk events. 21fy's net profit attributable to parent company was - 1 billion and net profit deducted from non attributable to parent company was - 1.1 billion, which were slightly better than the median of the previous performance forecast, mainly due to 21q4 the impact of more impairment provisions and related goodwill impairment due to risk events in the real estate industry.
The company also disclosed 22q1 performance forecast, and estimated net profit attributable to the parent company is 70-90 million, yoy-55% - 65%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to the parent company of 130140 million, yoy + 10 ~ + 20%, which is roughly in line with the expectation; The large amount of non recurring gains and losses is mainly due to the changes in fair value of financial assets held due to the fluctuation of transaction price in the secondary market.
The provision for impairment of 21fy was sufficient, the operating cash flow continued at a good level, and the orders on hand at the end of the period were sufficient
The bid winning order amount of 21fy's architectural decoration sector is 26.4 billion, yoy + 10% (compared with 19fy CAGR + 9%; the bid winning amount of curtain wall and interior decoration is 14.5 billion and 11.9 billion respectively, yoy is + 3% and + 19% respectively, compared with 19fy CAGR + 8% and + 15% respectively). At the end of 21fy, the company had 31.7 billion orders on hand, about 1.5x of the revenue in the same period, and the revenue was well guaranteed.
21fy company's comprehensive gross profit margin is 17.2%, yoy-1.1pct; Among them, architectural decoration and medical services were 16.8% and 25.9%, yoy respectively - 1.0 and - 1.2pct. Due to real estate risks, 21fy company has made more provision for impairment, including: 1) 1.68 billion for receivables of a customer and related companies, and the remaining unsecured net exposure is about 180 million, accounting for 1.3% of the balance of receivables at the end of 21fy; 2) It is estimated that the provision for impairment loss of goodwill will be 180 million, and the overall scale of goodwill will drop to 660 million at the end of 21fy, accounting for 2.4% of the total assets in the same period.
At the end of 21fy, the company's asset liability ratio was 72.8%, yoy + 6.8pct; The debt ratio with interest is 11.0%, yoy-1.5pct. 21fy the turnover days of the two funds were 269 days, with a decrease of 33 days, continuing the steady upward trend in recent years; In the same period, the net inflow of operating cash flow was 1.1 billion, which continued to be better than the steady-state net profit level in recent years.
Strengthen the layout of photovoltaic buildings, win the bid for two large projects, and the transformation prospect of curtain wall leader is good
Under the background of "double carbon" and energy structure adjustment, photovoltaic curtain wall may welcome development opportunities; The investment of the company has also increased (21fy set up a subsidiary, Jianghe smart photovoltaic building, actively layout photovoltaic curtain wall / BIPV, etc.; the company independently developed R35 roof photovoltaic building integration system, which can replace color steel tiles and be directly used as roof materials), Two large-scale projects were completed (on February 8, the company won the bid for the roof project of Beijing industrial sports reconstruction PPP project, with a bid amount of 278 million, and the construction scope includes roof structure, roof special process design, roof photovoltaic power generation, etc.; on March 17, the company won the bid for the curtain wall project of plot 14 of Hangzhou Environmental Protection Science and technology headquarters of taini, with a bid amount of 256 million, and the company is responsible for the integrated construction of glass / stone curtain wall and cadmium telluride photovoltaic curtain wall of the project). As a Chinese company
As the leader of wall engineering, the transformation prospect of photovoltaic buildings is worth looking forward to.
Raise the target price to 12.66 yuan and maintain the "buy" rating
More focus on the impact of the epidemic on the construction progress. We lowered the forecast of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company on 22 / 23 to 730 / 980 million (the previous value was 880 / 11.1 million), increased the forecast of 24-year net profit attributable to the parent company to 1.2 billion, and + 34% / + 23% YoY respectively in 23 / 24 years. The company's photovoltaic construction project was better than expected, recognized the company's 20x 22-year target PE, raised the company's target price to 12.66 yuan (the previous value was 11.40 yuan), and continued to maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the newly signed order is not as expected; Impairment risk; The layout rhythm of photovoltaic buildings is lower than expected; The performance forecast is the preliminary calculation result, and the specific financial data shall be subject to the periodic report disclosed by the company
