Satellite Chemistry ( Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co.Ltd(002648) )
\u3000\u30001. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.007 billion yuan, an increase of 262% year-on-year
The company achieved an operating revenue of 28.557 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 165%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.007 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 262%.
\u3000\u30002. The first five year plan was successfully concluded, and the second five year plan set sail
In 2017, the company formulated the “double five year plan” to clarify the development goal of satellite chemistry to build a low-carbon chemical new material technology company with lightweight raw materials as the core.
The C3 industrial chain of the company is highly integrated: in 2021, the company has a total of 660000 tons of acrylic acid and 750000 tons of acrylic acid. In the “Five Year Plan”, in addition to 180000 tons of acrylic acid and 300000 tons of acrylic acid, the company will support 800000 tons of PDH and 800000 tons of butyl octanol to further improve its industrial chain and enhance its cost advantage. At the same time, the company’s Sap products are replaced by domestic products and become a supplier of well-known brands at home and abroad.
The company’s C2 industrial chain has multiple advantages: the company’s ethane cracking project was put into operation in the first half of 2021. Ethane cracking route has multiple advantages: 1) strong cost advantage and high profitability; 2) There are barriers to the acquisition of ethane resources, and the route is difficult to copy; 3) Obvious carbon emission advantages, etc. The company’s ethane cracking phase II project is expected to be put into trial production in June this year, including 400000 tons of polyethylene, 730000 tons of ethylene oxide and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of styrene.
Green Industrial Park Project: in the phase I project, 100000 tons of ethanolamine and 400000 tons of polystyrene are expected to be put into trial production in the third quarter of 2022, and 150000 tons of battery grade carbonate are expected to be put into trial production in the fourth quarter of 2022. The follow-up planning of the green industrial park project includes 100000 tons of ethanolamine, 400000 tons of polystyrene and 100000 tons α- Olefins and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of carbonate series products are expected to be completed and put into operation in December 2027. It is planned to expand the new product system of new energy, new materials and functional chemicals within the second five-year plan of the company.
\u3000\u30003. The oil price is at a high level, which improves the competitiveness of ethane cracking route
Compared with naphtha and MTO routes, ethane cracking route has cost advantages. From 2015 to 2021, the average costs of ethane cracking route, naphtha route and MTO route are 3144 yuan / ton, 5736 yuan / ton and 6480 yuan / ton respectively. As of March 18, 2022, the profitability of ethane cracking route, naphtha route and MTO route is 3446 yuan / ton, – 1686 yuan / ton and 410.67 yuan / ton respectively.
\u3000\u30004. Profit forecast and viewpoint
Maintain the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company of 8.334 billion / 10.717 billion in 2022 / 2023. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the rise of propane price brings the risk that the income of C3 industrial chain is lower than expected; The risk that the company’s production progress is slower than expected; The risk of future price decline of some products.
