\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 139 Shenzhen Topband Co.Ltd(002139) )
Event:
The company released its annual report for 21 years, and achieved a revenue of 7.767 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 39.69%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 565 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.16%; Deduct the non net profit of 432 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13.28%. At the same time, the company issued a repurchase plan to repurchase 40-60 million yuan of company shares at a price of no more than 16 yuan / share. The repurchased shares will be used for equity incentive or employee stock ownership plan.
Our comments are as follows:
The revenue exceeded expectations. Under the turbulent environment of the supply chain, the “supply guarantee” strategy was firmly implemented, the market share was further improved, the number and quality of key customers increased, and key products grew at a high speed.
The revenue was 7.8 billion yuan, exceeding the expected annual sales target. Specifically, 1) the tool revenue was 2.994 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 43.36%. The number of head customers + category expansion, and the market share increased steadily; 2) Household appliance revenue was 2.959 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.36%. Key customer development + key high growth products continued to emerge; 3) The revenue of the new energy sector was 1.241 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 38.86%. Energy storage + green travel quickly opened the market and became the third growth curve of the company; 4) The revenue of the industrial sector was 295 million, with a year-on-year increase of 14.41%. Domestic substitution + industrial intelligent upgrading; 5) The revenue of intelligent solutions was 221 million, with a year-on-year increase of 60.40%. Aiot solutions were provided for subdivided scenes such as “industry, catering, hotel and Park”, so as to further broaden the growth track of the company.
Short term costs, expenses and bad debt provision have a certain negative impact on current profits.
From the cost side: the rise in the price and shortage of raw materials in the past 21 years had a certain impact on the gross profit margin. The overall gross profit margin of the company was 21.28%, down 3.11 percentage points year-on-year, including 22.43% (-4.99pp), 19.55% (-1.93pp) for household appliances and 21.73% (-1.44pp) for new energy. The company’s annual investment in R & D and management of energy storage has increased, depending on the high growth rate of the industry. Prudently withdrawing 69.23 million yuan of credit impairment provision for individual customers also has a certain impact on short-term performance.
Looking forward to 2022, the external environment will gradually improve, the logic of the company’s own development will remain unchanged, the product layout will continue to be enriched, and the market competitiveness will be prominent. It is expected to achieve good growth of revenue and profits.
Looking forward to 2022 1) demand growth, share concentration to the head, high-speed growth trend of key products is expected to continue, the production capacity of major production bases outside China is released and climbing one after another, and the revenue is expected to continue to grow rapidly; 2) The inflection point of raw material shortage and price rise has gradually emerged, focusing on reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and the gross profit margin is expected to return to the normal level quarter by quarter; 3) The increase of cost input is expected to continue to be diluted with the rapid growth of income; 4) The impact of short-term provision and incentive expenses is gradually weakened; 5) Promote the repurchase plan to demonstrate the company’s growth confidence. On the whole, the revenue is expected to continue to grow rapidly in 22 years, and the profit growth rate is higher.
In the medium and long term, under the general trend of intellectualization, with the superposition of global industrial chains and concentration in China, the company has obvious head advantages, and further opens up growth space by expanding new energy and other new directions around intelligent control.
The company’s medium and long-term development logic is constantly verified. 1) the demand for intelligent control in intelligent society continues to grow rapidly; 2) Transfer of global production capacity to China; 3) China’s share is concentrated to the head. Focusing on the general direction of intelligent control, the company has laid out the new energy business segment for many years, facing energy storage and green markets, focusing on benefiting from the rapid penetration of lithium battery applications in various industries. The equity incentive of the company defines the growth objectives of revenue and deduction of non net profit in 22-24 years, and the medium and long-term objectives in 2025 and 2030. It is expected to maintain the continuous growth of revenue and profit by adding measures such as organizational optimization, cost reduction and efficiency increase.
Investment advice and profit forecast
Under the general trend of intelligence, the company is expected to achieve compound growth of 30% + by 2025. Although the short-term supply chain disturbance has a great pressure on the current cost, the company seizes the opportunity to obtain more large customers, further improves the market share, exceeds the expectation, continues to expand the product line, further widens the growth track, and continuously strengthens the market competitiveness. In the future, as the supply chain returns to normal and the impact of short-term and one-time cost investment is weakened, the company’s profit growth is expected to accelerate. Considering the impact of amortization of equity incentive expenses, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-23 years is adjusted from 800 million and 1.06 billion yuan to 700 million and 1.02 billion yuan respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 24 years is expected to be 1.37 billion yuan, corresponding to 20 times of P / E in 22 years and 14 times of P / E in 23 years. The “buy” rating is reiterated.
Risk warning: cost reduction and efficiency increase are slower than expected, the impact of the global epidemic is higher than expected, bad debt risk, market competition is higher than expected, and downstream demand is lower than expected
