\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 568 Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) )
Event:
The company issued a repurchase plan and plans to repurchase shares at a price of no more than 62.27 yuan / share (including 62.27 yuan / share) in the next six months. The capital of this repurchase is no less than 200 million yuan and no more than 400 million yuan.
Key investment points:
1. This repurchase is intended to be used for employee incentive and convertible bonds to demonstrate the company’s confidence in future development: according to the upper limit of repurchase price, the number of shares repurchased this time is expected to be about 321642 million shares, accounting for 0.43-0.86% of the total share capital. Among them, the total amount of funds used to implement equity incentive or employee stock ownership plan shall not be less than 80 million yuan and not more than 160 million yuan, and the total amount of funds used to convert convertible corporate bonds issued by the company shall not be less than 120 million yuan and not more than 240 million yuan. As of March 22, the closing price of the company was 36.44 yuan / share, and the upper limit of the company’s repurchase price was 171% of the current price, which demonstrated the affirmation of the management and major shareholders of the company’s value and confidence in future development, and was conducive to further improving the company’s long-term incentive mechanism.
2. Affected by multiple factors, the growth rate has decreased, but it still maintains good growth. As the growth rate of the company’s 2021q3 pre blending business revenue decreased compared with the first half of the year, the market is worried about the company’s future development trend. Since the company began to raise the price of products at the end of December last year, the price raising process is long, which will affect the channel profit in the short term. In addition, since the second half of last year, the weakness of overall macro consumer demand has also affected the short-term growth. However, at present, the price of the company’s online retail products has been successfully raised, and compared with the growth center of the overall mass consumer goods, the company still maintains a high growth trend.
3. The driving factors for long-term growth remain unchanged, and the penetration rate of low alcohol drinks will continue to increase. The diversification of low alcohol liquor tastes is the future development trend of the industry. The company has been deeply engaged in the industry for many years, Rio brand is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and the consumption foundation is solid. In addition, the company’s forward-looking layout of liquor business, and the Laizhou distillery project has been put into operation. With “lighting up China’s production areas on the world map of whisky” as the communication concept, the company has attracted extensive attention in the industry. It is expected that the company’s pre blending business will be empowered in terms of base liquor quality and stability, base liquor cost and brand tonality in the future. In the long run, the company is on the right path and there is no need to worry too much about short-term performance fluctuations. The company had previously issued an equity incentive plan at the end of 2021. Based on the revenue of 2021, the revenue growth from 2022 to 2024 will not be less than 25% / 53.75% / 84.50%, and the year-on-year growth will not be less than 25% / 23% / 20%. The incentive target is stable.
4. Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the company to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 700 / 85 / 1.02 billion from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of + 31% / + 20% / + 20%, EPS of RMB 0.94, 1.13 and 1.36 per share respectively, and PE of 39 / 32 / 27 respectively, giving a “buy” rating.
5. Risk tips: 1) the promotion of new products does not meet expectations; 2) The production capacity launch progress is lower than expected; 3) Industry competition intensifies and sales expenses increase; 4) The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations; 5) Food safety risks.
