\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 139 Shenzhen Topband Co.Ltd(002139) )
The company issued the annual report of 2021. The annual revenue of the company was 7.767 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 39.69%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 565 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.16%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 432 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.28%. Affected by last year’s high base, the company recorded a revenue of 2.148 billion yuan in 2021q4, a year-on-year increase of + 9.43%; The net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was -509500 yuan.
Cost disturbance and impairment provision lead to profit pressure. 1) Affected by high price adjustment and changes in the use of raw materials in inventory, the gross profit margin of the company in the third and fourth quarters was 20.57% / 17.11% respectively, down 6.5/5.89pct respectively compared with the same period last year. Combined with peer data, it is difficult to conduct costs in the power tool industry and the largest customer, while the downstream demand of multiple categories and batches leads to the stickiness of cost rate, and the cost side disturbance was obvious in the fourth quarter. 2) The total amount of credit impairment accrued by the company is about 86 million yuan.
Revenue side deposit highlights, controller head customers increase and new energy business drive future growth. In 2021, the revenue growth of the company’s tools / household appliances / new energy sector was about 43% / 37% / 39% respectively. The optimization of customer structure continued, the number of head customers exceeded 100, and the top five customers were growing year-on-year. At the same time, the growth of the new energy sector benefited from the continuous expansion of downstream applications; The international layout was promoted in an orderly manner, the Ningbo operation base gradually released production capacity, Nantong lithium battery industrial park was put into use in the second half of the year, and the production capacity planning of Vietnam and India was steadily promoted. The company’s projects under construction were 495 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 69.52%. We are concerned about the increase of the company’s head customers and the pull of new energy business on future growth, which will potentially resist the revenue fluctuation caused by the differentiation of controller demand.
Investment advice. Considering that the cost side pressure may be difficult to completely eliminate in the first half of the year, and there will be a large share based payment fee of about 204 million yuan in 2022, we adjust the company’s profit forecast. It is expected that the company will realize revenue of 9.813121.79/15.033 billion yuan, net profit attributable to parent company of 637983/1.288 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 0.51/0.78/1.03 yuan, and current share price corresponding PE of 22 / 14 / 11 times. With reference to the valuation level of comparable peer listed companies and deducting the impact of share based payment fees on 2022, the company is given a valuation range of 23-25 times in 2022, corresponding to a reasonable price range of 14.77-16.00 yuan in 2022, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: market expansion is less than expected, demand is less than expected, and raw materials fluctuate.
