Looking back on Tuesday’s A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, the stock indexes differentiated in the morning, the Shanghai index fluctuated and rose, with occasional signs of turning red and rising, while the Shenzhen Component Index and gem index showed a pulse downward probe; In the afternoon, the three major stock indexes showed a wave of rapid upward attack performance, the late diving fell back, and the overall trend showed a shock consolidation pattern.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, at present, the rebound kinetic energy of the market has declined and began to appear obvious differentiation, the concept sector has rotated, the risk appetite of funds has not improved temporarily, large-scale changes have occurred in global bulk commodities due to various reasons, and the overall market environment is still unstable. Investors can increase their positions and keep their positions at the bottom of the market.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that the market hot spots changed again on Tuesday, led by real estate, finance, military industry and cycle industries. The growth stocks led by the previous day fell one after another, and the market still lacks a strong leading hot spot. The trading volume of the two cities is less than trillion, and the characteristics of stock game are significant. Considering the continuous rebound of the Hang Seng Index in recent days, it is expected that the Shanghai index is expected to rebound again after full preparation. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the changes in policy, capital and external market . It is expected that the short-term slight consolidation of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight shock of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
In terms of the future market, Guosheng securities also believes that the overall valuation of A-Shares has entered a relatively low range. At this stage, the opportunity is greater than the risk, and there is enough room for the future upward rebound . In terms of operation, although the current index has a demand for stepping back, there is limited downward space. Among them, the probability of the Shanghai index this year will not fall below the recent low. Due to the ebb of the speculation on the theme of short-term board connection on the disk, and the superposition market is about to enter the disclosure period of the first quarterly report, the stepping back of the index may switch the style to the trend track sector such as photovoltaic and lithium battery. Therefore, it is necessary to observe the change of the disk style, follow the change of the market and grasp the rotation rhythm of the sector, Control positions and be cautious to be long.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) mentioned that the long-term cost performance of the low point of Shanghai Composite Index in mid March (measured by implied ERP) can be compared with several historical bottoms (2008, 2012, 2016, 2018 and 2020). It can be said that we are ushering in the bottom area of a large band. The big bottom corresponds to big opportunities, but the process of getting out of the bottom is often tortuous. At this time, we should keep a normal mind : objectively understand the problems faced by the medium and short-term market, but also maintain a positive attitude and make good reserves. This kind of reserve includes preset conditions to trigger rebound / reversal, and study the styles, industries and individual stocks that may have opportunities in the future. Of course, the physical and mental state also needs to be reserved. In addition, after the crash, we should talk less about empty long-term problems and extreme short-term emotional venting, and pay more attention to marginal changes, especially bottom-up changes.
From a macro perspective, Wanhe Securities said that although the meeting of the finance committee was powerful in boosting market confidence and making A-shares rebound periodically, we still need to pay attention to the implementation of follow-up policies. The economic data from January to February exceeded market expectations, but at present, China’s imported inflation pressure is large, superimposed with the sporadic outbreak of China’s epidemic, which has a significant impact on economic growth in March, and the downward pressure on economic growth is still large.
The agency also believes that the benefits brought by the policy are conducive to the formation of a phased bottom in the market, but it is also difficult for the market to get out of the current overall adjustment trend. At present, the market will be dominated by shocks, and there should not be too many actions , so we need to wait for the implementation of the steady growth policy and the dissipation of uncertain factors. The industry can pay attention to the industrial chain related to infrastructure and consumption.
In terms of operational strategy, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) pointed out that although market still has repeated risks in the short term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the future performance of a shares. In the near future, the market may be in the bottom grinding period . In the future, with the accelerated improvement of new social finance and the easing of external negative factors, A-Shares are expected to usher in the starting point of a new round of upward cycle.
The agency further proposed that focus on two directions : first, focusing on the traditional infrastructure with steady growth and the improvement of real estate investment, upstream resource products may benefit more from this round of steady growth, such as nonferrous metals, building materials, petroleum and petrochemical; Second, focus on the steady growth of new infrastructure, such as photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage and hydrogen energy; Digital infrastructure, such as IDC, big data cloud computing, etc.
Earlier, AVIC Securities said, from the current situation, the fundamentals of real estate and consumer sectors will still be at the bottom stage in the short term, but will recover later ; Investment opportunities such as new infrastructure, old infrastructure, manufacturing, undervalued and high dividends deserve attention. It is suggested to pay attention to investment opportunities in relevant sectors. In addition, investors can participate in the rebound based on medium and long-term fundamental logic, based on growth and patiently layout, including high-profile growth stocks such as semiconductor, photovoltaic and digital economy.
