The lithium price, which once soared in the early stage, has finally slowed down in recent days.
Since March, the price of lithium carbonate has slowed to 4700 yuan / ton.
In terms of share price, as of the closing on March 22, the lithium sector index (803217. EI), lithium battery sector index (861057. EI) and new energy vehicle sector index (910033. EI) had negative increases and decreases during the year.
3 lithium price increase narrowed
CBC metal network data show that on March 21, the average prices of battery grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and lithium hydroxide (56.5%) in China were reported at 504000 yuan / ton and 489500 yuan / ton respectively, which was basically the same as that in the same period last week.
He Li, general manager of zhizhishan investment, said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that at present, the lithium price is at a high level of about 500000 yuan / ton, which is due to the joint action of three reasons.
First, affected by the Symposium on the operation of the lithium industry and the price rise of upstream materials of power batteries jointly held by the Department of raw materials industry and the first Department of equipment industry of the Ministry of industry and information technology on March 18, some upstream manufacturers chose to wait and see temporarily.
Second, the supply of lithium resources is now a global market, and the strong overseas demand also supports the high operation of lithium prices.
Third and most importantly, among the listed power battery companies in the midstream, except Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , the gross profit margin of the second-line manufacturers has fallen to single digits, and the overall loss of business has continued to increase. Now the battery and main engine manufacturers have begun to transmit cost pressure through price rise. If consumers can accept the price rise and the price transmission is smooth, the lithium price still has a basis for rise. If consumer demand is restrained, Then it will also feed back to the upstream for price reduction, so as to achieve a new dynamic balance.
“Lithium projects generally take 2-3 years from start-up, construction, climbing and output, and some projects may take up to 5 years. This serious mismatch between supply and demand leads to rapid price rise. It is expected that the price will remain at a high level this year, there may be a price inflection point in the first half of next year, and more supply capacity will be released in the second half of next year to basically meet the demand. Of course, the final equilibrium price depends on the change of terminal demand.” He Li said.
Liu Cunxin, assistant manager of Rongzhi investment fund, added that after the rapid rise of some time ago, the lithium price has almost reached the critical point acceptable to the downstream, and the downstream also believes that the lithium price will begin to fluctuate and fall with the release of some upstream capacity.
Qi Haizhen, President of Beijing Teyi sunshine, believes that from the current development trend, the consolidation of lithium price at a high level near 500000 / ton in the next few years will be a high probability event. Under this background, in the face of a new energy industry still in its “Youth”, the game phenomenon between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain will be unprecedented, and there is also the possibility of further intensification of game competition.
product price rise and share price fall
It is worth noting that with the sharp rise in the price of lithium in the upstream, the product prices of battery and vehicle manufacturers in the midstream and downstream are also rising.
According to incomplete statistics by the reporter of Securities Daily, since March this year, more than 20 new energy vehicle enterprises have announced price increases, and Xiaopeng automobile announced an increase of 1 Shenzhen Zhongheng Huafa Co.Ltd(000020) 000 yuan; Nezha automobile increases by Dingli Corp.Ltd(300050) 00 yuan Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) price increase of 6 Jiangnan Mould & Plastic Technology Co.Ltd(000700) 0 yuan; The price of Weima automobile increased by 70 Lingyi Itech (Guangdong) Company(002600) 0 yuan; Ideal car announced that it would raise the price; Tesla recently adjusted its price three times in a row Byd Company Limited(002594) announced that the official guidance price of relevant new energy vehicles will be increased by 3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 0 yuan; Euler cat GT increased by 12000 yuan; The price of GAC aion series increased by 4 Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) 00 yuan; Chery new energy vehicles raised the official guidance price of new energy models related to xiaoant by 3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 0 yuan.
For battery manufacturers, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) recently said that due to the sharp rise in the price of upstream raw materials, the company has dynamically adjusted the price of some battery products accordingly. Previously, a number of power battery enterprises, including Byd Company Limited(002594) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Zhuo Neng new energy, have sent price increase letters.
Although all tracks in the industrial chain are raising prices in the form of beating drums and passing flowers, the response of the capital market is relatively cold. As of the closing on March 22, the lithium sector index (803217. EI) has fallen by 15.08% in the year; The lithium battery sector index (861057. EI) fell by 13.78% during the year; The new energy vehicle sector index (910033. EI) fell 4.93% during the year.
For the investment value of the upstream and downstream of the lithium industry chain in the future, he Li believes that although the overall price of the lithium price industry chain continues to reach a new high, the share prices of relevant companies continue to callback, mainly because the early market price overdrafts the company’s future performance. In addition, the market may expect the lithium price to fall back from a high level, resulting in insufficient driving force for the rise of share prices.
“At present, the certainty of upstream lithium resources is still relatively strong. Some leading listed companies with advantages in management, capital, resources, R & D and production capacity are not only cyclical stocks, but also have great growth potential. In addition, from the perspective of industrial chain, the cost performance advantage of lithium iron phosphate is gradually weakened due to price rise factors, and the demand for high nickel cathode and diaphragm is relatively strong, so there may be poor expectations in the future.” He Li said.
