Market trend:
Today, the indexes of the two cities diverged, the Shanghai index rose and fell, and the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index fell collectively. As of the close, the Shanghai index rose 0.19%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 0.49% and the gem index fell 1.39%; Stocks in the two cities fell more or less, and more than 2500 stocks fell; The daily turnover of the two cities exceeded 950 billion, and the net inflow of funds from the North was 2.7 billion. Cyclical stocks represented by real estate are active, and there are obvious signs that the rest of the real estate industry is king; In addition, coal and other sectors benefiting from rising oil prices performed strongly today.
In terms of sectors, we will focus on tracking three sectors today:
First, the real estate sector; In this round of rebound, the real estate sector is full of elasticity; On the one hand, it is because of the huge decline in the early stage; On the other hand, in March, it is an indisputable fact that the sales volume of the first and second tier cities has warmed up. At the same time, the liquidity of the real estate industry has been improved, and the risk of default has been greatly reduced; Moreover, the real estate industry has the expectation of valuation repair. Under the background that a large number of private real estate enterprises are eliminated, the remaining leading real estate companies are expected to obtain valuation repair. Second, the coal sector; Affected by geopolitical factors, crude oil prices continue to operate at a high level, the coal industry is not light in the off-season, and prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall; And it is expected that the proportion of expected increase in the performance of individual stocks in the coal industry in the first quarter is high. The sector is continuously active, but it should not follow up if it rises too much; Third, individual stocks in the information security sector. On the news side, the NSA’s most powerful Internet attack tool was exposed Shenzhen Guohua Network Security Technology Co.Ltd(000004) limit, CICA security, Synthesis Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300479) , Shenzhen Tianyuan Dic Information Technology Co.Ltd(300047) , Surfilter Network Technology Co.Ltd(300311) , Qiming Information Technology Co.Ltd(002232) etc. followed the rise. The low level of information security is increasing, and investors can pay attention to it for a long time.
Outlook:
Cyclical stocks are strong today, while defensive sectors are weak. The impact of the current round of epidemic on the economy is still continuing, but according to previous experience, it can be basically controlled in 14 days. Even if the current round is extended, it is reasonable to see differentiation after the sharp rise of pharmaceutical stocks. On the other hand, the sharp rise of cyclical stocks in early trading seems to be optimistic about the economic outlook; In fact, the United States accelerated the pace of raising interest rates and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued, which had a negative impact on China’s exports to a certain extent. At present, the market hopes that the real estate and infrastructure sectors can support the economy, and the real estate sector is indeed undertaking the task of steady growth; But the follow-up will also look at the medium and long-term credit data in March. On the whole, after several consecutive trading days of rebound, investors should not be too optimistic but also pessimistic in strategy; Take advantage of the rotation between sectors and give priority to low absorption.
