Summary
\u3000\u30001. The proportion of existing nuclear power generation is low, and it may be vigorously developed in the future
\u3000\u30002. Three generations of domestic technology breakthroughs and the transformation from a nuclear power to a nuclear power
\u3000\u30003. The policy side will continue to make efforts, and the installed capacity may reach 200 million KW and 440 million kW in 2035 The market discount may disappear, and the power to increase the electricity price is strong
\u3000\u30005. Combing the upstream, middle and downstream of the industrial chain
\u3000\u30006. China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) vs Cgn Power Co.Ltd(003816)
1.1 the existing nuclear power generation accounts for a relatively low proportion and has great development potential
In recent years, China has achieved the start-up and large-scale development of nuclear power, and the installed capacity and power generation of nuclear power have gradually increased.
From 2015 to 2020, the national installed capacity of nuclear power increased from 27.17 million kW to 49.89 million KW, with CAGR reaching 12.9%; Nuclear power generation increased from 171.4 billion kwh to 366.2 billion kwh, with a CAGR of 16.4%.
The existing nuclear power generation accounts for a low proportion, which has greater development space compared with the world advanced level. By 2020, the world’s average nuclear power generation accounted for 10.4%, and France ranked first accounted for 70%. According to wind data, China’s 2021 nuclear power generation accounts for 5.02% of the total power generation.
1.2 nuclear power is low-carbon and clean, which can effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions
As a low-carbon and clean energy, nuclear power can reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Compared with coal or natural gas power stations, the fission reaction of the heat source of nuclear power forms a closed loop, and there is no emission of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides.
According to the comprehensive environmental impact assessment of China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) and other power technologies by Wang Yanzhe and others, the carbon emission per unit power generation in the life cycle of nuclear power is only 10.9 gCO2 / (kW · h), which is far lower than that of coal power, gas power, hydropower, photovoltaic and other power generation methods. Carbon dioxide emissions from nuclear power generation mainly come from fuel mining and waste treatment.
1.3 nuclear power has multiple advantages of high utilization hours / low cost / less raw materials
High utilization hours: nuclear power generation is not affected by weather, season or other environmental factors. According to the list of national power industry statistical express in 2021, the utilization hours of power generation equipment of China’s 6000 kW and above nuclear power plants will reach 7802 hours in 2021, far exceeding that of new energy.
Low cost: according to the data of nuclear power grid quoted by China Nuclear Energy Industry Association, the cost of nuclear power generation in 2020 is 395 yuan / 10000 kwh.
Low input of raw materials: according to the nuclear power grid quoted by the China Nuclear Energy Industry Association, 1000 grams of standard coal, mineral oil and uranium generate about 8 kwh, 12 kWh and 24 MWh of electricity respectively.
\u3000\u30007. Risk statement
(1) the direction of power marketization is determined, but the development time is difficult to determine.
(2) there are risks in the safety, quality, progress and cost control of nuclear power projects under construction.
