Recently, listed companies have disclosed the latest performance, “exceeding expectations” has become a keyword for many companies and industries. Some fund managers believe that the disclosure of the operating data from January to February and the performance forecast of the first quarter have enabled the market to find an anchor for pricing. Some fund managers admitted that they did not expect the performance of some industries and companies to exceed their expectations. They will revise their expectations and adjust their positions in combination with front-line research and the latest data.
For the next investment, the fund institution believes that there have been many cost-effective investment opportunities in the market. It is suggested to pay attention to the first quarter report and select sectors with deterministic growth, such as upstream resources, new energy, etc.
performance forecast for good
Since March, a number of A-share listed companies have released their main operating data from January to February. On March 7, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) released the data for the first time in its history. Many Baijiu analysts believe that Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 12 business data exceeded expectations. Fresh supermarket leader Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , CXO leader Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , photovoltaic leader Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) and other companies also disclosed their business data from January to February. Most of the companies that disclosed their business data maintained a good growth momentum.
In addition, the recently released performance forecast of Listed Companies in the first quarter also revealed a positive trend. According to datayes, as of March 20, 44 companies had issued performance forecasts for the first quarter, and 38 companies expected their profits to rise year-on-year, of which 24 companies expected their net profits to increase by more than 50% year-on-year.
In terms of industry, food and beverage, household appliances and other industries have shown good performance China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) research report shows that according to the operating data disclosed by Listed Companies in various industries from January to February, the revenue growth of food and beverage, power equipment and new energy industries is high, exceeding the consensus expectation of the market.
Capital securities also said that from January to February, the retail sales of household appliances and audio equipment increased by 12.7% year-on-year, outperforming expectations Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that the year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment from January to February was 3.7%, reversing the negative growth trend since the second half of last year, and the overall performance exceeded expectations.
fund manager revised expectations
According to the analysis of the macro strategy Department of GF, the National Bureau of statistics released the main economic data for the first two months of this year last week. On the whole, the economic data from January to February far exceeded market expectations, showing the resilience of the economy. On the one hand, the financial front force in the early stage, and the investment growth rate of power, transportation and water conservancy rebounded from January to February. On the other hand, it is the precise prevention and control of the epidemic. Compared with January to February last year, the impact of the epidemic on consumption has been reduced. Recently, the epidemic prevention and control measures have been upgraded, the fear of short-term economic downturn has not been eliminated, and the steady growth policy needs to continue to work. The follow-up probability will also see more active policies such as the central bank’s interest rate and reserve requirement reduction.
Yang Xiaobin, fund manager of golden eagle fund, said that companies with good performance successively disclosed operating data from January to February, which can enable investors to see the anchor of valuation in the case of market decline. “The function of price forecasting is to restore the reasonable performance of the market.” He believes that the market is more affected by risk appetite in the short term, but in the long run, the market is essentially determined by corporate profits. Under the condition that there is no major change in fundamentals and the company’s profitability is good, the investor’s concerns caused by the sharp market fluctuations will slowly ease. At the same time, from the perspective of valuation, the valuation level of CSI 300 at the low point last week is close to that at the beginning of 2016. After the market expectation is stable, there is no need to be too pessimistic.
Another fund manager admitted that from the data released by the National Bureau of statistics and some listed companies, the performance of some industries was indeed different from what he had expected. For example, the performance of the consumer industry was better than he expected, which made him reflect on his recent investment. “In order to revise their expectations, they have conducted frequent research on listed companies recently. From the latest industry data obtained from the research, the fundamentals of Listed Companies in most industries are good and the company’s operation is improving,” he said Through front-line research, in addition to strengthening confidence at the current time point, he will also actively make some adjustments to the portfolio position structure in the next investment.
focus on the first quarterly opportunity
Looking ahead to the next market, Shen Chao, a macro strategy analyst at HSBC Jinxin, said that on the whole, although there are still some adverse external factors in the market, the valuation has fallen to the low position of the center, and there have been many cost-effective investment opportunities in the market. In the long run, buying at the position of undervalued value in the market and waiting for valuation repair has high certainty and potential return. In the short term, the signal of policy care is obvious, the repressive factors in the early stage are gradually alleviated, and the future market may be more optimistic.
For specific investment opportunities, China Merchants Fund said that the A-share market is in a short-term rebound period, and the impact of external short-term shocks may have passed. With the continued efforts of the steady growth policy, the market is expected to usher in a new round of credit cycle and profit cycle, and investment opportunities can be arranged around the two keywords of “confidence recovery” and “wrong killing”.
The macro strategy Department of GF believes that after substantial adjustment in the early stage, the valuation is very close to the bottom area of 2018 from the P / E ratio of the main A-share indexes. Considering that the risk-free rate of return in 2018 is significantly higher than now, from the perspective of risk compensation, the medium and long-term allocation value of A-Shares has been relatively high. With the gradual announcement of the first quarterly performance forecast, the stock price is expected to return to fundamentals. At present, the prosperity of new energy related subdivided industries is relatively high. Suggestions on the growth of the boom and wind power sector, such as the gradual attention of the high wind power sector.
Honeycomb Fund said that at present, it is not suitable to blindly sell down. If there is a second bottom, it is the time to increase positions. For specific allocation, honeycomb fund suggests paying attention to the first quarterly report and selecting sectors with deterministic growth, such as upstream resources, new energy, etc.
