Strategic view
On Monday, the Shanghai composite index was mainly strong in the morning and fluctuated. It fell sharply to 3223 points in the afternoon, and then gradually recovered its lost ground. The Shanghai Composite Index and the gem index rose for four consecutive days. As of the close, the Shanghai stock index rose 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, the gem index rose 0.46%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.17%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 fell 0.72%, and the China Stock Exchange 500 rose 0.42%. The net outflow of northbound funds was 8.420 billion yuan, with an average net outflow of 3.338 billion yuan last week and a net inflow of 8.457 billion yuan on the previous trading day. The turnover of the two cities was 1016098 billion yuan, with an average value of 1111255 billion yuan last week, compared with 991408 billion yuan the previous trading day. A shares fluctuated strongly, and there is still rebound momentum at present. On Monday, the national Standing Committee rarely focused on the capital market. From last week's financial committee meeting to today's national standing committee meeting, the meeting specifications and attention have become higher and higher, which reflects the high attention paid to the capital market and helps to continue to stabilize the risk appetite of floor investors. At present, for the overall judgment of the market, although the China US dollar first meeting last week eliminated the concerns of the "new cold war" between China and the United States to a certain extent and indeed helped to alleviate the market risk appetite, due to the previous continuous rise of a shares, the divergence of funds on the floor, the superposition of the Russian Ukrainian war is still in the white heat stage, and the rebound of international commodity prices, these factors have suppressed the risk appetite of investors, Therefore, we are now entering a process of narrow amplitude oscillation and waiting for a new direction.
Stock index futures trading strategy
Viewpoint: the discount of futures is expanded, and the short-term index may remain volatile
(1) on March 21, the positions of if, IH and IC contracts were 202000, 95300 and 314900 respectively, and the day on month changes were - 1.1%, - 0.1% and 1.74%;
(2) on March 21, the difference between the contract and spot price of if, IH and IC in the current month was -43.75 points, -15.11 points and -54.34 points, which changed by -29.64 points, -2.92 points and -28.33 points compared with the previous trading day. Operation suggestion: if2204 mainly throws high and absorbs low, with support level of 4170 points and resistance level of 4280 points
Option trading strategy
Viewpoint: the implied volatility continues to decline, and the index may continue to rebound
(1) on March 21, the PCR (positions) of 50ETF option, Huatai 300etf option, harvest 300etf option and 300 stock index option were 0.57, 0.74, 0.77 and 0.74 respectively, of which the PCR values of 50ETF and 300etf options decreased slightly;
(2) on March 21, the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option were 21.6% and 22.4% respectively, and the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option fell slightly. Operation suggestion: radical strategy: none at present; Steady strategy: buy a 300etf to buy 4300 options in March and sell a 300etf to buy 4400 options at the same time. The maximum return of a single portfolio is 897 yuan and the maximum loss is 103 yuan; Hedging strategy: None
Risk tips
1. Rapid cooling of market transactions; 2 short term panic continued to spread risk factors.
